Insights
Tactical analysis, model movement, and intelligence, explained in plain language.
Why underdogs win more than you think
Variance is structural in low-scoring sports. We quantify how often the better team actually loses, and why.
Monte Carlo simulations in sports: A simple guide
Why we simulate a match thousands of times instead of predicting one scoreline, and what the spread tells you.
Reading markets vs our models
The market and the model disagree more than you would expect. We look at why, and what the gap between them reveals.
Pressing and the high line: a risk-reward map
Aggressive pressing buys territory and chances but concedes a specific kind of high-value opportunity.
Reading team form: signal and noise
Recent results are a noisy read on a team's true level. We separate the signal in form from the streaks that fool everyone.
The expanded World Cup: a wider, more open field
Forty-eight teams, 104 matches, and a longer knockout road. We look at how the new format reshapes who can win.