Tournament Simulator

Monte Carlo simulations of the road to the World Cup 2026

50,000 Simulations Completed

Most Likely Winner

Spain

21.4%

Surprise Team

Colombia

Outside top-8 FIFA rank, 4.8% title odds in 50,000 simulations.

Most Unpredictable Group

Volatility Index: 0.97

Average Goals in Final

2.42

Mean across 50,000 simulated finals (regulation + ET).

USA Best Finish

Round of 16

Mexico reaches at least the Round of 16 in 68% of simulations.

Title odds over time

Nightly snapshots · history begins Jul 9

SpainArgentinaFranceEnglandColombiaBrazil

Tournament BracketAdvancement Probability Knockout Paths

Probability to Advance 0%100%

ROUND OF 32

Spain99.6%

Argentina98.9%

England98.4%

France98%

Switzerland97.4%

Mexico97.2%

Germany95.5%

Brazil95.4%

Netherlands94.9%

Colombia94%

Ecuador93.9%

Belgium93.7%

ROUND OF 16

Spain79%

France78.7%

England73%

Argentina72.8%

Mexico67.7%

Switzerland66.6%

Colombia64.8%

Belgium63.6%

Portugal60.9%

Brazil60.4%

Morocco55.8%

Norway55.7%

QUARTERFINALS

Spain59.3%

France58%

Argentina57.8%

England47.1%

Brazil37.6%

Colombia36.6%

Belgium36.3%

Mexico34.3%

SEMIFINALS

Spain47.1%

Argentina41.8%

France40.5%

England30.1%

FINAL

Spain32.7%

Argentina27.8%

Spain

21.4%

WIN PROBABILITY

Group Advancement

Chance each team reaches the Round of 32 — top two advance automatically, plus the 8 best third-place teams across all groups.

Group A

Mexico97%

South Korea76%

Czech Republic54%

South Africa38%

Group B

Switzerland97%

Canada93%

Bosnia and Herzegovina51%

Qatar22%

Group C

Brazil95%

Morocco94%

Scotland61%

Haiti18%

Group D

United States70%

Turkey70%

Paraguay70%

Australia67%

Group E

Germany96%

Ecuador94%

Ivory Coast79%

Curacao9%

Group F

Netherlands95%

Japan91%

Sweden55%

Tunisia27%

Group G

Belgium94%

Iran77%

Egypt68%

New Zealand33%

Group H

Spain100%

Uruguay91%

Saudi Arabia52%

Cabo Verde14%

Group I

France98%

Norway89%

Senegal62%

Iraq17%

Group J

Argentina99%

Austria71%

Algeria61%

Jordan32%

Group K

Colombia94%

Portugal92%

Congo DR47%

Uzbekistan32%

Group L

England98%

Croatia86%

Panama47%

Ghana30%

Bar = chance to advance. Green dot marks the two highest advancement odds in each group.

Knockout Path Explorer

Spain’s projected route — chance of reaching each round and the most likely opponents.

Path difficultyModerate · 56.5

Round of 32100%Austria 35% · Algeria 27% · Argentina 24%

Round of 1679%Portugal 21% · Colombia 20% · Croatia 19%

Quarter-final59%Belgium 24% · United States 7% · Turkey 7%

Semi-final47%France 27% · Brazil 9% · Morocco 9%

Final33%Argentina 25% · England 13% · France 9%

% after each round = chance to reach it. Opponent % = chance of that matchup if they get there.

Title Win Probabilities

Our model vs Betfair Exchange

Model Market

1Spain21.4%58.4%

2Argentina17%41.6%

3France14.6%—

4England9.3%—

5Colombia4.8%—

6Brazil4.4%—

7Portugal3.6%—

8Morocco3.3%—

9Belgium2.9%—

10Norway2.6%—

11Netherlands2.5%—

12Switzerland2.4%—

13Mexico2.2%—

14Germany1.6%—

15Ecuador1.3%—

16Japan1.2%—

Market is Betfair Exchange’s implied probability (margin removed), shown for comparison only — our model is independent and never blended with it.

View Full Rankings

Top 5 Semifinal Contenders

Probability to reach the semifinals

Upset Index (higher = more likely)

Most likely to outperform seeding

Colombia4.5

Mexico0.3

Norway0.1

South Korea0

South Africa0

View Upset Tracker

Simulation Distribution

Final score distribution (most common)

1-014.4%

0-113.8%

2-19.3%

1-29%

2-07.9%

0-27.3%

1-16.6%

0-05.2%

3-03.2%

3-13.1%

View All Scorelines

Probabilities based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations using a Bayesian Dixon-Coles + Monte Carlo.Brier Score (Out-of-Sample): 0.31Good