Team Probabilities
Home Advantage: Host edgeEach team’s probability of reaching every round, across 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations — from the Round of 32 to lifting the trophy.
| Team | Ro32 | Ro16 | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Spain | 99.6% | 79% | 59.3% | 47.1% | 32.7% | 21.4% |
2 Argentina | 98.9% | 72.8% | 57.8% | 41.8% | 27.8% | 17% |
3 France | 98% | 78.7% | 58% | 40.5% | 24.2% | 14.6% |
4 England | 98.4% | 73% | 47.1% | 30.1% | 17.2% | 9.3% |
5 Colombia | 94% | 64.8% | 36.6% | 19.5% | 10.3% | 4.8% |
6 Brazil | 95.4% | 60.4% | 37.6% | 20.4% | 9.9% | 4.4% |
7 Portugal | 92.2% | 60.9% | 32.7% | 17% | 8.2% | 3.6% |
8 Morocco | 93.6% | 55.8% | 33.4% | 17% | 7.8% | 3.3% |
9 Belgium | 93.7% | 63.6% | 36.3% | 15.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
10 Norway | 89.4% | 55.7% | 30.6% | 15.1% | 6.4% | 2.6% |
11 Netherlands | 94.9% | 49.3% | 30.4% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
12 Switzerland | 97.4% | 66.6% | 33.4% | 14.2% | 6.2% | 2.4% |
13 Mexico | 97.2% | 67.7% | 34.3% | 15.3% | 6.1% | 2.2% |
14 Germany | 95.5% | 55.2% | 24.4% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
15 Ecuador | 93.9% | 50.3% | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
16 Japan | 90.7% | 41.4% | 22% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
17 Uruguay | 91.4% | 31.9% | 15.7% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
18 Croatia | 85.9% | 40.1% | 14.8% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
19 United States | 70.3% | 36.7% | 14.5% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
20 Paraguay | 69.5% | 36.1% | 14.4% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
21 Australia | 67.3% | 34% | 13.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
22 Turkey | 69.6% | 36.1% | 14.1% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
23 Canada | 92.6% | 49.1% | 17.4% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
24 Iran | 76.5% | 35.5% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
25 Senegal | 61.6% | 25.7% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
26 Austria | 70.7% | 21% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
27 South Korea | 75.9% | 35.4% | 11.1% | 3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
28 Scotland | 61.3% | 19.9% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
29 Ivory Coast | 78.6% | 28.1% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
30 Egypt | 67.7% | 26.8% | 8.3% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
31 Algeria | 60.5% | 16% | 6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
32 South Africa | 37.7% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% |
33 Czech Republic | 54.3% | 18.4% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0% |
34 Qatar | 22.1% | 3.7% | 0.4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
35 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 50.7% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0% |
36 Haiti | 18.4% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% |
37 Curacao | 9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
38 Tunisia | 26.6% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% |
39 Sweden | 55.4% | 14% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0% |
40 New Zealand | 33.1% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% |
41 Saudi Arabia | 51.5% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% |
42 Cabo Verde | 13.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
43 Iraq | 16.9% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% |
44 Jordan | 31.5% | 5.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% |
45 Uzbekistan | 32.2% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% |
46 Congo DR | 47.4% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 1% | 0.2% | 0% |
47 Ghana | 29.7% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% |
48 Panama | 47.1% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0% |
Probabilities based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations using a Bayesian Dixon-Coles + Monte Carlo. Each column is the chance of reaching that round (so the values fall as the tournament deepens).