Full Title-Win Rankings
Home Advantage: Host edgeEvery team’s probability of lifting the 2026 World Cup, across 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
1
Spain21.4%
Spain21.4%2
Argentina17%
Argentina17%3
France14.6%
France14.6%4
England9.3%
England9.3%5
Colombia4.8%
Colombia4.8%6
Brazil4.4%
Brazil4.4%7
Portugal3.6%
Portugal3.6%8
Morocco3.3%
Morocco3.3%9
Belgium2.9%
Belgium2.9%10
Norway2.6%
Norway2.6%11
Netherlands2.5%
Netherlands2.5%12
Switzerland2.4%
Switzerland2.4%13
Mexico2.2%
Mexico2.2%14
Germany1.6%
Germany1.6%15
Ecuador1.3%
Ecuador1.3%16
Japan1.2%
Japan1.2%17
Uruguay0.7%
Uruguay0.7%18
Croatia0.7%
Croatia0.7%19
United States0.5%
United States0.5%20
Paraguay0.5%
Paraguay0.5%21
Australia0.4%
Australia0.4%22
Turkey0.4%
Turkey0.4%23
Canada0.3%
Canada0.3%24
Iran0.3%
Iran0.3%25
Senegal0.2%
Senegal0.2%26
Austria0.2%
Austria0.2%27
South Korea0.1%
South Korea0.1%28
Scotland0.1%
Scotland0.1%29
Ivory Coast0.1%
Ivory Coast0.1%30
Egypt0.1%
Egypt0.1%31
Algeria0.1%
Algeria0.1%32
South Africa0%
South Africa0%33
Czech Republic0%
Czech Republic0%34
Qatar0%
Qatar0%35
Bosnia and Herzegovina0%
Bosnia and Herzegovina0%36
Haiti0%
Haiti0%37
Curacao0%
Curacao0%38
Tunisia0%
Tunisia0%39
Sweden0%
Sweden0%40
New Zealand0%
New Zealand0%41
Saudi Arabia0%
Saudi Arabia0%42
Cabo Verde0%
Cabo Verde0%43
Iraq0%
Iraq0%44
Jordan0%
Jordan0%45
Uzbekistan0%
Uzbekistan0%46
Congo DR0%
Congo DR0%47
Ghana0%
Ghana0%48
Panama0%
Panama0%Probabilities based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations using a Bayesian Dixon-Coles + Monte Carlo.