After extra time✓ Model's call was correct
Norway1–2England
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ENG win
24%
NOR
29%
Draw
47%
ENG●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Norway
20.2%
Draw
26.7%
England
53.1%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore Norway 1.6–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.4%
1 - 112.5%
0 - 210.7%
0 - 09.4%
1 - 29.2%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Norway Goals
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NOR-2 pp
20.2%
21.8%
Draw+2 pp
26.7%
25.0%
ENG0 pp
53.1%
53.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Norway
20.2%
Draw
26.7%
England
53.1%
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NOR-2 pp
20.2%
21.8%
Draw+2 pp
26.7%
25.0%
ENG0 pp
53.1%
53.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.4%
1 - 112.5%
0 - 210.7%
0 - 09.4%
1 - 29.2%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Norway Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
NOR
0.86
Total
2.41
ENG
1.55
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.4%
Over 2.5 goals43.4%
Under 2.5 goals56.6%
Both teams to score46.1%
NOR clean sheet21.1%
ENG clean sheet42.2%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Norway Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.4%
1 - 112.5%
0 - 210.7%
0 - 09.4%
1 - 29.2%
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Norway
20.2%
Draw
26.7%
England
53.1%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore Norway 1.6–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Norway are projected to generate 0.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
England are projected for 1.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Norway.