Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Norway
23.9%
Draw
28.7%
England
47.3%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 47%, projected to outscore Norway 1.4–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.6%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 010.8%
0 - 29.7%
1 - 08.8%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Norway Goals
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NOR+1 pp
23.9%
22.5%
Draw+3 pp
28.7%
25.9%
ENG-4 pp
47.3%
51.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Norway
23.9%
Draw
28.7%
England
47.3%
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NOR+1 pp
23.9%
22.5%
Draw+3 pp
28.7%
25.9%
ENG-4 pp
47.3%
51.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.6%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 010.8%
0 - 29.7%
1 - 08.8%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Norway Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
NOR
0.90
Total
2.27
ENG
1.37
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.6%
Over 2.5 goals39.7%
Under 2.5 goals60.3%
Both teams to score44.9%
NOR clean sheet25.2%
ENG clean sheet40.6%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Norway Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 113.6%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 010.8%
0 - 29.7%
1 - 08.8%
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Norway
23.9%
Draw
28.7%
England
47.3%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 47%, projected to outscore Norway 1.4–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Norway are projected to generate 0.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
England are projected for 1.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Norway.