Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
57.6%
Draw
26%
Belgium
16.4%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 58%, projected to outscore Belgium 1.6–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.9%
2 - 012.3%
1 - 111.9%
0 - 010.1%
2 - 19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP-1 pp
57.6%
58.4%
Draw+2 pp
26.0%
24.1%
BEL-1 pp
16.4%
17.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
57.6%
Draw
26%
Belgium
16.4%
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP-1 pp
57.6%
58.4%
Draw+2 pp
26.0%
24.1%
BEL-1 pp
16.4%
17.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.9%
2 - 012.3%
1 - 111.9%
0 - 010.1%
2 - 19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ESP
1.60
Total
2.34
BEL
0.74
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.9%
Over 2.5 goals41.5%
Under 2.5 goals58.5%
Both teams to score42.2%
ESP clean sheet47.8%
BEL clean sheet20.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.9%
2 - 012.3%
1 - 111.9%
0 - 010.1%
2 - 19.1%
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
57.6%
Draw
26%
Belgium
16.4%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 58%, projected to outscore Belgium 1.6–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Spain are projected to generate 1.6 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Belgium are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Spain.