Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Spain2–1Belgium
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ESP win
58%
ESP●
26%
Draw
16%
BEL
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
66.5%
Draw
22.1%
Belgium
11.3%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 67%, projected to outscore Belgium 1.9–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.9%
2 - 014.3%
1 - 110.2%
2 - 19%
3 - 08.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP+8 pp
66.5%
58.3%
Draw-2 pp
22.1%
24.6%
BEL-6 pp
11.3%
17.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
66.5%
Draw
22.1%
Belgium
11.3%
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP+8 pp
66.5%
58.3%
Draw-2 pp
22.1%
24.6%
BEL-6 pp
11.3%
17.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.9%
2 - 014.3%
1 - 110.2%
2 - 19%
3 - 08.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ESP
1.85
Total
2.48
BEL
0.63
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.9%
Over 2.5 goals45.6%
Under 2.5 goals54.4%
Both teams to score40.0%
ESP clean sheet53.1%
BEL clean sheet15.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.9%
2 - 014.3%
1 - 110.2%
2 - 19%
3 - 08.9%
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
66.5%
Draw
22.1%
Belgium
11.3%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 67%, projected to outscore Belgium 1.9–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Spain are projected to generate 1.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Belgium are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Spain.