Full time✓ Model's call was correct
France2–0Morocco
Our pre-kickoff call — result: FRA win
48%
FRA●
30%
Draw
22%
MAR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
48.3%
Draw
29.7%
Morocco
22%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Morocco 1.3–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.3%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 012.5%
2 - 010.4%
0 - 19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
France Goals
Match Confidence
87
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-13 pp
48.3%
60.9%
Draw+5 pp
29.7%
24.8%
MAR+8 pp
22.0%
14.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
48.3%
Draw
29.7%
Morocco
22%
Match Confidence
87
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-13 pp
48.3%
60.9%
Draw+5 pp
29.7%
24.8%
MAR+8 pp
22.0%
14.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.3%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 012.5%
2 - 010.4%
0 - 19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
France Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
FRA
1.32
Total
2.12
MAR
0.80
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.3%
Over 2.5 goals35.6%
Under 2.5 goals64.4%
Both teams to score41.0%
FRA clean sheet44.9%
MAR clean sheet26.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
France Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.3%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 012.5%
2 - 010.4%
0 - 19.1%
Match Confidence
87
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
48.3%
Draw
29.7%
Morocco
22%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Morocco 1.3–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
France are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Morocco are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours France.