Full time✓ Model's call was correct
France2–0Morocco
Our pre-kickoff call — result: FRA win
48%
FRA●
30%
Draw
22%
MAR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
44.3%
Draw
30.1%
Morocco
25.7%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 44%, projected to outscore Morocco 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 012.1%
0 - 19.8%
2 - 09.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
France Goals
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-17 pp
44.3%
60.9%
Draw+5 pp
30.1%
24.8%
MAR+12 pp
25.7%
14.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
44.3%
Draw
30.1%
Morocco
25.7%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-17 pp
44.3%
60.9%
Draw+5 pp
30.1%
24.8%
MAR+12 pp
25.7%
14.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 012.1%
0 - 19.8%
2 - 09.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
France Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
FRA
1.26
Total
2.16
MAR
0.90
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.0%
Over 2.5 goals36.7%
Under 2.5 goals63.3%
Both teams to score43.1%
FRA clean sheet40.8%
MAR clean sheet28.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
France Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 012.1%
0 - 19.8%
2 - 09.2%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
44.3%
Draw
30.1%
Morocco
25.7%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 44%, projected to outscore Morocco 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
France are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Morocco are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours France.