FIFA World Cup 2026Tue Jul 7 · 13:00 PDT · BC Place, Vancouver
Decided on penalties✗ Model's call missed
Switzerland0–0Colombia
Switzerland won 4–3 on penalties
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
27%
SUI
30%
Draw●
43%
COL
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
30.9%
Draw
30.9%
Colombia
38.2%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 38%, projected to outscore Switzerland 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 112.8%
0 - 012.3%
1 - 011.1%
1 - 27.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Colombia Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SUI+4 pp
30.9%
26.5%
Draw-3 pp
30.9%
33.8%
COL-2 pp
38.2%
39.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
30.9%
Draw
30.9%
Colombia
38.2%
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SUI+4 pp
30.9%
26.5%
Draw-3 pp
30.9%
33.8%
COL-2 pp
38.2%
39.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 112.8%
0 - 012.3%
1 - 011.1%
1 - 27.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Colombia Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
SUI
1.00
Total
2.15
COL
1.14
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals36.3%
Under 2.5 goals63.7%
Both teams to score43.9%
SUI clean sheet31.8%
COL clean sheet36.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Colombia Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 112.8%
0 - 012.3%
1 - 011.1%
1 - 27.6%
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
30.9%
Draw
30.9%
Colombia
38.2%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 38%, projected to outscore Switzerland 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Switzerland are projected to generate 1.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Colombia are projected for 1.1 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Switzerland.