Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Argentina3–2Egypt
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ARG win
73%
ARG●
20%
Draw
8%
EGY
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
73.4%
Draw
19.1%
Egypt
7.5%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 73%, projected to outscore Egypt 2.0–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.4%
1 - 015.8%
3 - 011.2%
1 - 18.4%
0 - 08.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG+2 pp
73.4%
71.5%
Draw-1 pp
19.1%
20.2%
EGY-1 pp
7.5%
8.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
73.4%
Draw
19.1%
Egypt
7.5%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG+2 pp
73.4%
71.5%
Draw-1 pp
19.1%
20.2%
EGY-1 pp
7.5%
8.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.4%
1 - 015.8%
3 - 011.2%
1 - 18.4%
0 - 08.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ARG
2.01
Total
2.51
EGY
0.50
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.4%
Over 2.5 goals46.4%
Under 2.5 goals53.6%
Both teams to score34.4%
ARG clean sheet60.8%
EGY clean sheet13.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.4%
1 - 015.8%
3 - 011.2%
1 - 18.4%
0 - 08.3%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
73.4%
Draw
19.1%
Egypt
7.5%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 73%, projected to outscore Egypt 2.0–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Argentina are projected to generate 2.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Egypt are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Argentina.