FIFA World Cup 2026Mon Jul 6 · 17:00 PDT · Lumen Field, Seattle
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
United States1–4Belgium
Our pre-kickoff call — result: BEL win
34%
USA
28%
Draw
38%
BEL●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
25.8%
Draw
26.8%
Belgium
47.4%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 47%, projected to outscore United States 1.5–1.1 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 112.7%
0 - 111%
1 - 29.2%
0 - 28.7%
0 - 08%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-12 pp
25.8%
37.4%
Draw-3 pp
26.8%
30.0%
BEL+15 pp
47.4%
32.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
25.8%
Draw
26.8%
Belgium
47.4%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-12 pp
25.8%
37.4%
Draw-3 pp
26.8%
30.0%
BEL+15 pp
47.4%
32.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 112.7%
0 - 111%
1 - 29.2%
0 - 28.7%
0 - 08%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
USA
1.06
Total
2.58
BEL
1.52
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline12.7%
Over 2.5 goals47.8%
Under 2.5 goals52.2%
Both teams to score51.7%
USA clean sheet21.7%
BEL clean sheet34.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 112.7%
0 - 111%
1 - 29.2%
0 - 28.7%
0 - 08%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
25.8%
Draw
26.8%
Belgium
47.4%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 47%, projected to outscore United States 1.5–1.1 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
United States are projected to generate 1.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Belgium are projected for 1.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours United States.