FIFA World Cup 2026TBD · Lumen Field, Seattle
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
34%
Draw
28.2%
Belgium
37.7%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 38%, projected to outscore United States 1.3–1.2 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.4%
0 - 110.1%
1 - 09.5%
0 - 08.7%
1 - 28.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-1 pp
34.0%
35.5%
Draw0 pp
28.2%
28.2%
BEL+1 pp
37.7%
36.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
34%
Draw
28.2%
Belgium
37.7%
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-1 pp
34.0%
35.5%
Draw0 pp
28.2%
28.2%
BEL+1 pp
37.7%
36.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.4%
0 - 110.1%
1 - 09.5%
0 - 08.7%
1 - 28.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
USA
1.21
Total
2.49
BEL
1.29
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.4%
Over 2.5 goals45.5%
Under 2.5 goals54.5%
Both teams to score51.4%
USA clean sheet27.5%
BEL clean sheet29.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Belgium Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.4%
0 - 110.1%
1 - 09.5%
0 - 08.7%
1 - 28.2%
Match Confidence
78
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
34%
Draw
28.2%
Belgium
37.7%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 38%, projected to outscore United States 1.3–1.2 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
United States are projected to generate 1.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Belgium are projected for 1.3 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours United States.