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Portugal0–1Spain
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ESP win
21%
POR
29%
Draw
51%
ESP●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
14.1%
Draw
24.8%
Spain
61.1%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 61%, projected to outscore Portugal 1.7–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.6%
0 - 213.4%
1 - 111.3%
0 - 010%
1 - 29%
Scoreline Distribution
Spain Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-10 pp
14.1%
24.2%
Draw-2 pp
24.8%
27.2%
ESP+13 pp
61.1%
48.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
14.1%
Draw
24.8%
Spain
61.1%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-10 pp
14.1%
24.2%
Draw-2 pp
24.8%
27.2%
ESP+13 pp
61.1%
48.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.6%
0 - 213.4%
1 - 111.3%
0 - 010%
1 - 29%
Scoreline Distribution
Spain Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
POR
0.67
Total
2.34
ESP
1.67
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.6%
Over 2.5 goals41.6%
Under 2.5 goals58.4%
Both teams to score40.2%
POR clean sheet18.7%
ESP clean sheet51.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Spain Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.6%
0 - 213.4%
1 - 111.3%
0 - 010%
1 - 29%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
14.1%
Draw
24.8%
Spain
61.1%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 61%, projected to outscore Portugal 1.7–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Portugal are projected to generate 0.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Spain are projected for 1.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Portugal.