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Portugal0–1Spain
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ESP win
21%
POR
29%
Draw
51%
ESP●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
18.7%
Draw
27.6%
Spain
53.7%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 54%, projected to outscore Portugal 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.2%
1 - 112.6%
0 - 211.6%
0 - 011.1%
1 - 28.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Spain Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-5 pp
18.7%
24.2%
Draw0 pp
27.6%
27.2%
ESP+5 pp
53.7%
48.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
18.7%
Draw
27.6%
Spain
53.7%
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-5 pp
18.7%
24.2%
Draw0 pp
27.6%
27.2%
ESP+5 pp
53.7%
48.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.2%
1 - 112.6%
0 - 211.6%
0 - 011.1%
1 - 28.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Spain Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
POR
0.76
Total
2.24
ESP
1.48
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.2%
Over 2.5 goals39.0%
Under 2.5 goals61.0%
Both teams to score41.9%
POR clean sheet22.7%
ESP clean sheet46.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Spain Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.2%
1 - 112.6%
0 - 211.6%
0 - 011.1%
1 - 28.8%
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
18.7%
Draw
27.6%
Spain
53.7%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 54%, projected to outscore Portugal 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Portugal are projected to generate 0.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Spain are projected for 1.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Portugal.