Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Mexico2–3England
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ENG win
31%
MEX
30%
Draw
39%
ENG●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
24.4%
Draw
27.7%
England
48%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Mexico 1.5–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.1%
0 - 112.5%
0 - 09.4%
0 - 29.4%
1 - 29%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX-6 pp
24.4%
30.2%
Draw-2 pp
27.7%
29.6%
ENG+8 pp
48.0%
40.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
24.4%
Draw
27.7%
England
48%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX-6 pp
24.4%
30.2%
Draw-2 pp
27.7%
29.6%
ENG+8 pp
48.0%
40.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.1%
0 - 112.5%
0 - 09.4%
0 - 29.4%
1 - 29%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
MEX
0.96
Total
2.41
ENG
1.45
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.1%
Over 2.5 goals43.5%
Under 2.5 goals56.5%
Both teams to score48.0%
MEX clean sheet23.3%
ENG clean sheet38.2%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.1%
0 - 112.5%
0 - 09.4%
0 - 29.4%
1 - 29%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
24.4%
Draw
27.7%
England
48%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 48%, projected to outscore Mexico 1.5–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Mexico are projected to generate 1.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
England are projected for 1.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Mexico.