Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
31.3%
Draw
29.9%
England
38.8%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 39%, projected to outscore Mexico 1.2–1.1 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
0 - 112.1%
0 - 011.1%
1 - 010.5%
1 - 27.9%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX+1 pp
31.3%
30.2%
Draw0 pp
29.9%
29.8%
ENG-1 pp
38.8%
40.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
31.3%
Draw
29.9%
England
38.8%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX+1 pp
31.3%
30.2%
Draw0 pp
29.9%
29.8%
ENG-1 pp
38.8%
40.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
0 - 112.1%
0 - 011.1%
1 - 010.5%
1 - 27.9%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
MEX
1.05
Total
2.25
ENG
1.20
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.9%
Over 2.5 goals39.1%
Under 2.5 goals60.9%
Both teams to score46.1%
MEX clean sheet30.0%
ENG clean sheet34.9%
Scoreline Distribution
England Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
0 - 112.1%
0 - 011.1%
1 - 010.5%
1 - 27.9%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
31.3%
Draw
29.9%
England
38.8%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 39%, projected to outscore Mexico 1.2–1.1 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Mexico are projected to generate 1.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
England are projected for 1.2 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Mexico.