Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
47.4%
Draw
28.5%
Norway
24.1%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 47%, projected to outscore Norway 1.4–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.4%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 010.5%
2 - 09.6%
2 - 18.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Match Confidence
72
/100
High
Based on a 20-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-5 pp
47.4%
52.8%
Draw+3 pp
28.5%
25.6%
NOR+3 pp
24.1%
21.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
47.4%
Draw
28.5%
Norway
24.1%
Match Confidence
72
/100
High
Based on a 20-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-5 pp
47.4%
52.8%
Draw+3 pp
28.5%
25.6%
NOR+3 pp
24.1%
21.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.4%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 010.5%
2 - 09.6%
2 - 18.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BRA
1.39
Total
2.30
NOR
0.91
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.4%
Over 2.5 goals40.5%
Under 2.5 goals59.5%
Both teams to score45.6%
BRA clean sheet40.1%
NOR clean sheet24.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.4%
1 - 113.3%
0 - 010.5%
2 - 09.6%
2 - 18.8%
Match Confidence
72
/100
High
Based on a 20-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
47.4%
Draw
28.5%
Norway
24.1%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 47%, projected to outscore Norway 1.4–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Brazil are projected to generate 1.4 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Norway are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Brazil.