Full time✗ Model's call missed
Brazil1–2Norway
Our pre-kickoff call — result: NOR win
47%
BRA
29%
Draw
24%
NOR●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
42.1%
Draw
29.3%
Norway
28.6%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 42%, projected to outscore Norway 1.3–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.7%
1 - 012.4%
0 - 010.5%
0 - 19.6%
2 - 18.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-10 pp
42.1%
52.5%
Draw+4 pp
29.3%
25.6%
NOR+7 pp
28.6%
21.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
42.1%
Draw
29.3%
Norway
28.6%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-10 pp
42.1%
52.5%
Draw+4 pp
29.3%
25.6%
NOR+7 pp
28.6%
21.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.7%
1 - 012.4%
0 - 010.5%
0 - 19.6%
2 - 18.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BRA
1.28
Total
2.30
NOR
1.01
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.7%
Over 2.5 goals40.4%
Under 2.5 goals59.6%
Both teams to score46.8%
BRA clean sheet36.2%
NOR clean sheet27.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.7%
1 - 012.4%
0 - 010.5%
0 - 19.6%
2 - 18.4%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
42.1%
Draw
29.3%
Norway
28.6%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 42%, projected to outscore Norway 1.3–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Brazil are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Norway are projected for 1.0 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Brazil.