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Canada0–3Morocco
Our pre-kickoff call — result: MAR win
21%
CAN
30%
Draw
49%
MAR●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
18.6%
Draw
28.5%
Morocco
52.9%
Key Insight
Morocco are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore Canada 1.4–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116.1%
1 - 112.7%
0 - 012.2%
0 - 211.7%
1 - 28.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Match Confidence
82
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CAN0 pp
18.6%
18.7%
Draw-1 pp
28.5%
29.2%
MAR+1 pp
52.9%
52.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
18.6%
Draw
28.5%
Morocco
52.9%
Match Confidence
82
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CAN0 pp
18.6%
18.7%
Draw-1 pp
28.5%
29.2%
MAR+1 pp
52.9%
52.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116.1%
1 - 112.7%
0 - 012.2%
0 - 211.7%
1 - 28.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CAN
0.73
Total
2.14
MAR
1.41
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.1%
Over 2.5 goals36.2%
Under 2.5 goals63.8%
Both teams to score39.7%
CAN clean sheet24.2%
MAR clean sheet48.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116.1%
1 - 112.7%
0 - 012.2%
0 - 211.7%
1 - 28.5%
Match Confidence
82
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
18.6%
Draw
28.5%
Morocco
52.9%
Key Insight
Morocco are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore Canada 1.4–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Canada are projected to generate 0.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Morocco are projected for 1.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Canada.