Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
20.9%
Draw
29.9%
Morocco
49.2%
Key Insight
Morocco are favoured at 49%, projected to outscore Canada 1.3–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 013.2%
0 - 210.8%
1 - 09%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CAN+2 pp
20.9%
19.1%
Draw+3 pp
29.9%
27.1%
MAR-5 pp
49.2%
53.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
20.9%
Draw
29.9%
Morocco
49.2%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CAN+2 pp
20.9%
19.1%
Draw+3 pp
29.9%
27.1%
MAR-5 pp
49.2%
53.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 013.2%
0 - 210.8%
1 - 09%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CAN
0.76
Total
2.07
MAR
1.31
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.0%
Over 2.5 goals34.3%
Under 2.5 goals65.7%
Both teams to score39.5%
CAN clean sheet26.8%
MAR clean sheet46.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 116%
1 - 113.2%
0 - 013.2%
0 - 210.8%
1 - 09%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
20.9%
Draw
29.9%
Morocco
49.2%
Key Insight
Morocco are favoured at 49%, projected to outscore Canada 1.3–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Canada are projected to generate 0.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Morocco are projected for 1.3 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Canada.