FIFA World Cup 2026Fri Jun 12 · 15:00 EDT · BMO Field, Toronto
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Canada1–1Bosnia and Herzegovina
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
59%
CAN
26%
Draw●
15%
BIH
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
62.4%
Draw
22.9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14.8%
Key Insight
Canada are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.9–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 012.6%
2 - 012.2%
1 - 110.8%
2 - 19.6%
3 - 07.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CAN+10 pp
62.4%
52.8%
Draw-4 pp
22.9%
27.2%
BIH-5 pp
14.8%
20.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
62.4%
Draw
22.9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14.8%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CAN+10 pp
62.4%
52.8%
Draw-4 pp
22.9%
27.2%
BIH-5 pp
14.8%
20.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 012.6%
2 - 012.2%
1 - 110.8%
2 - 19.6%
3 - 07.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CAN
1.85
Total
2.65
BIH
0.79
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline12.6%
Over 2.5 goals49.6%
Under 2.5 goals50.4%
Both teams to score46.7%
CAN clean sheet45.3%
BIH clean sheet15.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 012.6%
2 - 012.2%
1 - 110.8%
2 - 19.6%
3 - 07.6%
Match Confidence
76
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
62.4%
Draw
22.9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14.8%
Key Insight
Canada are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.9–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Canada are projected to generate 1.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Bosnia and Herzegovina are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Canada.