Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Paraguay0–1France
Our pre-kickoff call — result: FRA win
13%
PAR
24%
Draw
63%
FRA●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Paraguay
16.6%
Draw
26.5%
France
56.9%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 57%, projected to outscore Paraguay 1.6–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.4%
0 - 212.4%
1 - 112%
0 - 010.7%
1 - 28.9%
Scoreline Distribution
France Goals
012345+
Paraguay Goals
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
PAR+12 pp
16.6%
5.0%
Draw+13 pp
26.5%
13.1%
FRA-25 pp
56.9%
81.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Paraguay
16.6%
Draw
26.5%
France
56.9%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
PAR+12 pp
16.6%
5.0%
Draw+13 pp
26.5%
13.1%
FRA-25 pp
56.9%
81.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.4%
0 - 212.4%
1 - 112%
0 - 010.7%
1 - 28.9%
Scoreline Distribution
France Goals
012345+
Paraguay Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
PAR
0.72
Total
2.28
FRA
1.55
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.4%
Over 2.5 goals39.9%
Under 2.5 goals60.1%
Both teams to score41.1%
PAR clean sheet21.0%
FRA clean sheet48.5%
Scoreline Distribution
France Goals
012345+
Paraguay Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.4%
0 - 212.4%
1 - 112%
0 - 010.7%
1 - 28.9%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Paraguay
16.6%
Draw
26.5%
France
56.9%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 57%, projected to outscore Paraguay 1.6–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Paraguay are projected to generate 0.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
France are projected for 1.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Paraguay.