Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Paraguay
13.6%
Draw
24.7%
France
61.7%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Paraguay 1.7–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.9%
0 - 213.6%
1 - 111.2%
0 - 010.2%
1 - 28.9%
Scoreline Distribution
France Goals
012345+
Paraguay Goals
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
PAR+8 pp
13.6%
5.7%
Draw+11 pp
24.7%
13.9%
FRA-19 pp
61.7%
80.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Paraguay
13.6%
Draw
24.7%
France
61.7%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
PAR+8 pp
13.6%
5.7%
Draw+11 pp
24.7%
13.9%
FRA-19 pp
61.7%
80.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.9%
0 - 213.6%
1 - 111.2%
0 - 010.2%
1 - 28.9%
Scoreline Distribution
France Goals
012345+
Paraguay Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
PAR
0.65
Total
2.32
FRA
1.67
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.9%
Over 2.5 goals41.2%
Under 2.5 goals58.8%
Both teams to score39.4%
PAR clean sheet18.7%
FRA clean sheet52.1%
Scoreline Distribution
France Goals
012345+
Paraguay Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.9%
0 - 213.6%
1 - 111.2%
0 - 010.2%
1 - 28.9%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Paraguay
13.6%
Draw
24.7%
France
61.7%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Paraguay 1.7–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Paraguay are projected to generate 0.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
France are projected for 1.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Paraguay.