Decided on penalties✗ Model's call missed
Australia1–1Egypt
Egypt won 4–2 on penalties
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
42%
AUS
31%
Draw●
27%
EGY
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
41.3%
Draw
31.2%
Egypt
27.4%
Key Insight
Australia are favoured at 41%, projected to outscore Egypt 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.2%
1 - 114%
0 - 013.2%
0 - 110.8%
2 - 08.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Match Confidence
98
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
AUS+15 pp
41.3%
26.4%
Draw-3 pp
31.2%
34.0%
EGY-12 pp
27.4%
39.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
41.3%
Draw
31.2%
Egypt
27.4%
Match Confidence
98
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
AUS+15 pp
41.3%
26.4%
Draw-3 pp
31.2%
34.0%
EGY-12 pp
27.4%
39.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.2%
1 - 114%
0 - 013.2%
0 - 110.8%
2 - 08.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
AUS
1.17
Total
2.07
EGY
0.90
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.2%
Over 2.5 goals34.1%
Under 2.5 goals65.9%
Both teams to score41.6%
AUS clean sheet40.6%
EGY clean sheet31.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.2%
1 - 114%
0 - 013.2%
0 - 110.8%
2 - 08.6%
Match Confidence
98
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
41.3%
Draw
31.2%
Egypt
27.4%
Key Insight
Australia are favoured at 41%, projected to outscore Egypt 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Australia are projected to generate 1.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Egypt are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Australia.