Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
42.2%
Draw
31.3%
Egypt
26.5%
Key Insight
Australia are favoured at 42%, projected to outscore Egypt 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.6%
1 - 113.9%
0 - 013.5%
0 - 110.7%
2 - 08.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Match Confidence
94
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
AUS+13 pp
42.2%
29.4%
Draw-1 pp
31.3%
32.2%
EGY-12 pp
26.5%
38.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
42.2%
Draw
31.3%
Egypt
26.5%
Match Confidence
94
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
AUS+13 pp
42.2%
29.4%
Draw-1 pp
31.3%
32.2%
EGY-12 pp
26.5%
38.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.6%
1 - 113.9%
0 - 013.5%
0 - 110.7%
2 - 08.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
AUS
1.17
Total
2.04
EGY
0.87
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.6%
Over 2.5 goals33.5%
Under 2.5 goals66.5%
Both teams to score40.9%
AUS clean sheet41.8%
EGY clean sheet30.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Egypt Goals
012345+
Australia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.6%
1 - 113.9%
0 - 013.5%
0 - 110.7%
2 - 08.9%
Match Confidence
94
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Australia
42.2%
Draw
31.3%
Egypt
26.5%
Key Insight
Australia are favoured at 42%, projected to outscore Egypt 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Australia are projected to generate 1.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Egypt are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Australia.