Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
76.8%
Draw
16.8%
Ghana
6.3%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 77%, projected to outscore Ghana 2.2–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.3%
1 - 014.3%
3 - 012.1%
2 - 18%
1 - 17.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
COL+33 pp
76.8%
43.8%
Draw-13 pp
16.8%
30.3%
GHA-20 pp
6.3%
25.9%
Market values are the market consensus’s implied probability (margin removed, 22 books). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
76.8%
Draw
16.8%
Ghana
6.3%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
COL+33 pp
76.8%
43.8%
Draw-13 pp
16.8%
30.3%
GHA-20 pp
6.3%
25.9%
Market values are the market consensus’s implied probability (margin removed, 22 books). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.3%
1 - 014.3%
3 - 012.1%
2 - 18%
1 - 17.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
COL
2.19
Total
2.68
GHA
0.49
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.3%
Over 2.5 goals51.1%
Under 2.5 goals48.9%
Both teams to score35.0%
COL clean sheet61.1%
GHA clean sheet10.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.3%
1 - 014.3%
3 - 012.1%
2 - 18%
1 - 17.6%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
76.8%
Draw
16.8%
Ghana
6.3%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 77%, projected to outscore Ghana 2.2–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Colombia are projected to generate 2.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Ghana are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Colombia.