Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Colombia1–0Ghana
Our pre-kickoff call — result: COL win
77%
COL●
17%
Draw
6%
GHA
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
76.5%
Draw
17.1%
Ghana
6.4%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 76%, projected to outscore Ghana 2.2–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.4%
1 - 014.6%
3 - 012.1%
2 - 18%
1 - 17.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
COL+10 pp
76.5%
66.5%
Draw-6 pp
17.1%
22.7%
GHA-4 pp
6.4%
10.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
76.5%
Draw
17.1%
Ghana
6.4%
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
COL+10 pp
76.5%
66.5%
Draw-6 pp
17.1%
22.7%
GHA-4 pp
6.4%
10.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.4%
1 - 014.6%
3 - 012.1%
2 - 18%
1 - 17.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
COL
2.17
Total
2.65
GHA
0.49
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.4%
Over 2.5 goals50.3%
Under 2.5 goals49.7%
Both teams to score34.6%
COL clean sheet61.4%
GHA clean sheet11.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.4%
1 - 014.6%
3 - 012.1%
2 - 18%
1 - 17.7%
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
76.5%
Draw
17.1%
Ghana
6.4%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 76%, projected to outscore Ghana 2.2–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Colombia are projected to generate 2.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Ghana are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Colombia.