FIFA World Cup 2026TBD · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
84.3%
Draw
11%
Cabo Verde
4.7%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 84%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 2.8–0.3 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 017.2%
3 - 016.1%
1 - 012.2%
4 - 011.3%
0 - 05.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 64-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG0 pp
84.3%
83.9%
Draw0 pp
11.0%
11.2%
CPV0 pp
4.7%
4.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
84.3%
Draw
11%
Cabo Verde
4.7%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 64-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG0 pp
84.3%
83.9%
Draw0 pp
11.0%
11.2%
CPV0 pp
4.7%
4.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 017.2%
3 - 016.1%
1 - 012.2%
4 - 011.3%
0 - 05.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ARG
2.58
Total
2.89
CPV
0.31
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline17.2%
Over 2.5 goals57.2%
Under 2.5 goals42.8%
Both teams to score23.1%
ARG clean sheet73.6%
CPV clean sheet9.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 017.2%
3 - 016.1%
1 - 012.2%
4 - 011.3%
0 - 05.8%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 64-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
84.3%
Draw
11%
Cabo Verde
4.7%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 84%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 2.8–0.3 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Argentina are projected to generate 2.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Cabo Verde are projected for 0.3 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Argentina.