FIFA World Cup 2026Fri Jul 3 · 18:00 EDT · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
After extra time✓ Model's call was correct
Argentina3–2Cabo Verde
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ARG win
84%
ARG●
11%
Draw
5%
CPV
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
84.9%
Draw
10.7%
Cabo Verde
4.4%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 85%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 2.8–0.3 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 017.4%
3 - 016.3%
1 - 012.3%
4 - 011.4%
0 - 05.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 61-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG0 pp
84.9%
84.9%
Draw0 pp
10.7%
10.8%
CPV0 pp
4.4%
4.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
84.9%
Draw
10.7%
Cabo Verde
4.4%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 61-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ARG0 pp
84.9%
84.9%
Draw0 pp
10.7%
10.8%
CPV0 pp
4.4%
4.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 017.4%
3 - 016.3%
1 - 012.3%
4 - 011.4%
0 - 05.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ARG
2.59
Total
2.90
CPV
0.30
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline17.4%
Over 2.5 goals57.3%
Under 2.5 goals42.7%
Both teams to score22.8%
ARG clean sheet74.2%
CPV clean sheet8.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Cabo Verde Goals
012345+
Argentina Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 017.4%
3 - 016.3%
1 - 012.3%
4 - 011.4%
0 - 05.6%
Match Confidence
0
/100
Low
Based on a 61-point 90% credible interval.
A wider range reflects honest uncertainty, not a weaker forecast. It is common early in the tournament and for teams with less recent data.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Argentina
84.9%
Draw
10.7%
Cabo Verde
4.4%
Key Insight
Argentina are favoured at 85%, projected to outscore Cabo Verde 2.8–0.3 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Argentina are projected to generate 2.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Cabo Verde are projected for 0.3 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Argentina.