FIFA World Cup 2026Thu Jul 2 · 20:00 PDT · BC Place, Vancouver
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Switzerland2–0Algeria
Our pre-kickoff call — result: SUI win
47%
SUI●
29%
Draw
24%
ALG
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
51.2%
Draw
28.1%
Algeria
20.8%
Key Insight
Switzerland are favoured at 51%, projected to outscore Algeria 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.4%
1 - 112.9%
0 - 010.9%
2 - 010.7%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Algeria Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SUI+2 pp
51.2%
49.1%
Draw-1 pp
28.1%
29.5%
ALG-1 pp
20.8%
21.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
51.2%
Draw
28.1%
Algeria
20.8%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
SUI+2 pp
51.2%
49.1%
Draw-1 pp
28.1%
29.5%
ALG-1 pp
20.8%
21.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.4%
1 - 112.9%
0 - 010.9%
2 - 010.7%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Algeria Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
SUI
1.44
Total
2.27
ALG
0.82
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.4%
Over 2.5 goals39.6%
Under 2.5 goals60.4%
Both teams to score43.5%
SUI clean sheet43.8%
ALG clean sheet23.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Algeria Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.4%
1 - 112.9%
0 - 010.9%
2 - 010.7%
2 - 18.9%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
51.2%
Draw
28.1%
Algeria
20.8%
Key Insight
Switzerland are favoured at 51%, projected to outscore Algeria 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Switzerland are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Algeria are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Switzerland.