FIFA World Cup 2026TBD · BC Place, Vancouver
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
43.2%
Draw
30%
Senegal
26.8%
Key Insight
Switzerland are favoured at 43%, projected to outscore Senegal 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.8%
1 - 013.5%
0 - 011.7%
0 - 19.9%
2 - 08.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Senegal Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
43.2%
Draw
30%
Senegal
26.8%
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.8%
1 - 013.5%
0 - 011.7%
0 - 19.9%
2 - 08.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Senegal Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
SUI
1.26
Total
2.19
SEN
0.93
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.8%
Over 2.5 goals37.5%
Under 2.5 goals62.5%
Both teams to score44.1%
SUI clean sheet39.2%
SEN clean sheet28.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Senegal Goals
012345+
Switzerland Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.8%
1 - 013.5%
0 - 011.7%
0 - 19.9%
2 - 08.8%
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Switzerland
43.2%
Draw
30%
Senegal
26.8%
Key Insight
Switzerland are favoured at 43%, projected to outscore Senegal 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Switzerland are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Senegal are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Switzerland.