Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Spain3–0Austria
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ESP win
68%
ESP●
21%
Draw
11%
AUT
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
78.7%
Draw
15.6%
Austria
5.8%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 79%, projected to outscore Austria 2.4–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.1%
1 - 013.4%
3 - 012.6%
2 - 17.8%
4 - 07.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Match Confidence
85
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP+7 pp
78.7%
71.3%
Draw-3 pp
15.6%
19.0%
AUT-4 pp
5.8%
9.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
78.7%
Draw
15.6%
Austria
5.8%
Match Confidence
85
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ESP+7 pp
78.7%
71.3%
Draw-3 pp
15.6%
19.0%
AUT-4 pp
5.8%
9.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.1%
1 - 013.4%
3 - 012.6%
2 - 17.8%
4 - 07.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ESP
2.30
Total
2.79
AUT
0.49
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.1%
Over 2.5 goals53.8%
Under 2.5 goals46.2%
Both teams to score35.2%
ESP clean sheet61.3%
AUT clean sheet9.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 016.1%
1 - 013.4%
3 - 012.6%
2 - 17.8%
4 - 07.4%
Match Confidence
85
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
78.7%
Draw
15.6%
Austria
5.8%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 79%, projected to outscore Austria 2.4–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Spain are projected to generate 2.4 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Austria are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Spain.