Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
68.1%
Draw
21.4%
Austria
10.5%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 68%, projected to outscore Austria 1.9–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015%
2 - 014.6%
1 - 19.8%
3 - 09.4%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
68.1%
Draw
21.4%
Austria
10.5%
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015%
2 - 014.6%
1 - 19.8%
3 - 09.4%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ESP
1.90
Total
2.50
AUT
0.61
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.0%
Over 2.5 goals46.1%
Under 2.5 goals53.9%
Both teams to score39.2%
ESP clean sheet54.5%
AUT clean sheet14.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Spain Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015%
2 - 014.6%
1 - 19.8%
3 - 09.4%
2 - 18.9%
Match Confidence
80
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Spain
68.1%
Draw
21.4%
Austria
10.5%
Key Insight
Spain are favoured at 68%, projected to outscore Austria 1.9–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Spain are projected to generate 1.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Austria are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Spain.