Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
43.9%
Draw
30%
Croatia
26.1%
Key Insight
Portugal are favoured at 44%, projected to outscore Croatia 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 011.9%
0 - 19.8%
2 - 09%
Scoreline Distribution
Croatia Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR+2 pp
43.9%
42.4%
Draw0 pp
30.0%
30.2%
CRO-1 pp
26.1%
27.5%
Market values are the market consensus’s implied probability (margin removed, 21 books). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
43.9%
Draw
30%
Croatia
26.1%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR+2 pp
43.9%
42.4%
Draw0 pp
30.0%
30.2%
CRO-1 pp
26.1%
27.5%
Market values are the market consensus’s implied probability (margin removed, 21 books). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 011.9%
0 - 19.8%
2 - 09%
Scoreline Distribution
Croatia Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
POR
1.26
Total
2.17
CRO
0.91
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.9%
Over 2.5 goals37.0%
Under 2.5 goals63.0%
Both teams to score43.5%
POR clean sheet40.2%
CRO clean sheet28.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Croatia Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 011.9%
0 - 19.8%
2 - 09%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
43.9%
Draw
30%
Croatia
26.1%
Key Insight
Portugal are favoured at 44%, projected to outscore Croatia 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Portugal are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Croatia are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Portugal.