Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Portugal2–1Croatia
Our pre-kickoff call — result: POR win
44%
POR●
30%
Draw
26%
CRO
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
46.9%
Draw
29.4%
Croatia
23.7%
Key Insight
Portugal are favoured at 47%, projected to outscore Croatia 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.4%
0 - 011.7%
2 - 09.8%
0 - 19.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Croatia Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-10 pp
46.9%
56.8%
Draw+3 pp
29.4%
26.7%
CRO+7 pp
23.7%
16.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
46.9%
Draw
29.4%
Croatia
23.7%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-10 pp
46.9%
56.8%
Draw+3 pp
29.4%
26.7%
CRO+7 pp
23.7%
16.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.4%
0 - 011.7%
2 - 09.8%
0 - 19.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Croatia Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
POR
1.32
Total
2.19
CRO
0.86
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.3%
Over 2.5 goals37.4%
Under 2.5 goals62.6%
Both teams to score43.1%
POR clean sheet42.1%
CRO clean sheet26.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Croatia Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.4%
0 - 011.7%
2 - 09.8%
0 - 19.2%
Match Confidence
81
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
46.9%
Draw
29.4%
Croatia
23.7%
Key Insight
Portugal are favoured at 47%, projected to outscore Croatia 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Portugal are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Croatia are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Portugal.