Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
45.1%
Draw
30%
Algeria
24.9%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 45%, projected to outscore Algeria 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.2%
1 - 113.6%
0 - 012.1%
0 - 19.6%
2 - 09.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Algeria Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
45.1%
Draw
30%
Algeria
24.9%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.2%
1 - 113.6%
0 - 012.1%
0 - 19.6%
2 - 09.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Algeria Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BEL
1.28
Total
2.16
ALG
0.88
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.2%
Over 2.5 goals36.7%
Under 2.5 goals63.3%
Both teams to score43.0%
BEL clean sheet41.4%
ALG clean sheet27.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Algeria Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.2%
1 - 113.6%
0 - 012.1%
0 - 19.6%
2 - 09.4%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
45.1%
Draw
30%
Algeria
24.9%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 45%, projected to outscore Algeria 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Belgium are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Algeria are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Belgium.