After extra time✓ Model's call was correct
Belgium3–2Senegal
Our pre-kickoff call — result: BEL win
42%
BEL●
31%
Draw
28%
SEN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
49.9%
Draw
28.5%
Senegal
21.6%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 50%, projected to outscore Senegal 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.4%
1 - 113.1%
0 - 011.1%
2 - 010.5%
2 - 18.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Senegal Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BEL+1 pp
49.9%
49.4%
Draw0 pp
28.5%
28.2%
SEN-1 pp
21.6%
22.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
49.9%
Draw
28.5%
Senegal
21.6%
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BEL+1 pp
49.9%
49.4%
Draw0 pp
28.5%
28.2%
SEN-1 pp
21.6%
22.4%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.4%
1 - 113.1%
0 - 011.1%
2 - 010.5%
2 - 18.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Senegal Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BEL
1.41
Total
2.24
SEN
0.83
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.4%
Over 2.5 goals38.9%
Under 2.5 goals61.1%
Both teams to score43.4%
BEL clean sheet43.4%
SEN clean sheet24.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Senegal Goals
012345+
Belgium Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.4%
1 - 113.1%
0 - 011.1%
2 - 010.5%
2 - 18.8%
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Belgium
49.9%
Draw
28.5%
Senegal
21.6%
Key Insight
Belgium are favoured at 50%, projected to outscore Senegal 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Belgium are projected to generate 1.4 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Senegal are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Belgium.