FIFA World Cup 2026Wed Jul 1 · 17:00 PDT · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
United States2–0Bosnia and Herzegovina
Our pre-kickoff call — result: USA win
67%
USA●
21%
Draw
13%
BIH
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
64%
Draw
21.7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14.3%
Key Insight
United States are favoured at 64%, projected to outscore Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.0–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 011.8%
1 - 011.6%
1 - 110.4%
2 - 19.7%
3 - 07.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Match Confidence
72
/100
High
Based on a 20-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-7 pp
64.0%
71.0%
Draw+3 pp
21.7%
18.7%
BIH+4 pp
14.3%
10.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
64%
Draw
21.7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14.3%
Match Confidence
72
/100
High
Based on a 20-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-7 pp
64.0%
71.0%
Draw+3 pp
21.7%
18.7%
BIH+4 pp
14.3%
10.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 011.8%
1 - 011.6%
1 - 110.4%
2 - 19.7%
3 - 07.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
USA
1.96
Total
2.78
BIH
0.82
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline11.8%
Over 2.5 goals53.1%
Under 2.5 goals46.9%
Both teams to score48.8%
USA clean sheet43.9%
BIH clean sheet13.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 011.8%
1 - 011.6%
1 - 110.4%
2 - 19.7%
3 - 07.8%
Match Confidence
72
/100
High
Based on a 20-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
64%
Draw
21.7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14.3%
Key Insight
United States are favoured at 64%, projected to outscore Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.0–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
United States are projected to generate 2.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Bosnia and Herzegovina are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours United States.