FIFA World Cup 2026TBD · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
66.6%
Draw
20.6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
12.7%
Key Insight
United States are favoured at 67%, projected to outscore Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.1–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 012.3%
1 - 011.5%
1 - 19.8%
2 - 19.6%
3 - 08.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-3 pp
66.6%
69.3%
Draw+1 pp
20.6%
19.9%
BIH+2 pp
12.7%
10.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
66.6%
Draw
20.6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
12.7%
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
USA-3 pp
66.6%
69.3%
Draw+1 pp
20.6%
19.9%
BIH+2 pp
12.7%
10.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 012.3%
1 - 011.5%
1 - 19.8%
2 - 19.6%
3 - 08.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
USA
2.04
Total
2.82
BIH
0.78
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline12.3%
Over 2.5 goals54.2%
Under 2.5 goals45.8%
Both teams to score47.9%
USA clean sheet45.5%
BIH clean sheet12.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Bosnia and Herzegovina Goals
012345+
United States Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 012.3%
1 - 011.5%
1 - 19.8%
2 - 19.6%
3 - 08.5%
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
United States
66.6%
Draw
20.6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
12.7%
Key Insight
United States are favoured at 67%, projected to outscore Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.1–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
United States are projected to generate 2.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Bosnia and Herzegovina are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours United States.