Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
67.3%
Draw
22.5%
Congo DR
10.2%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 67%, projected to outscore Congo DR 1.8–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 016.7%
2 - 015.4%
0 - 010%
1 - 19.9%
3 - 09.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
England Goals
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG-6 pp
67.3%
73.4%
Draw+5 pp
22.5%
18.0%
COD+2 pp
10.2%
8.6%
Market values are the market consensus’s implied probability (margin removed, 10 books). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
67.3%
Draw
22.5%
Congo DR
10.2%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG-6 pp
67.3%
73.4%
Draw+5 pp
22.5%
18.0%
COD+2 pp
10.2%
8.6%
Market values are the market consensus’s implied probability (margin removed, 10 books). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 016.7%
2 - 015.4%
0 - 010%
1 - 19.9%
3 - 09.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
England Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ENG
1.79
Total
2.34
COD
0.55
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.7%
Over 2.5 goals41.8%
Under 2.5 goals58.2%
Both teams to score35.7%
ENG clean sheet57.7%
COD clean sheet16.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
England Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 016.7%
2 - 015.4%
0 - 010%
1 - 19.9%
3 - 09.3%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
67.3%
Draw
22.5%
Congo DR
10.2%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 67%, projected to outscore Congo DR 1.8–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
England are projected to generate 1.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Congo DR are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours England.