Full time✓ Model's call was correct
England2–1Congo DR
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ENG win
67%
ENG●
23%
Draw
10%
COD
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
74.1%
Draw
18.4%
Congo DR
7.5%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 74%, projected to outscore Congo DR 2.1–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.9%
1 - 014.8%
3 - 011.3%
1 - 18.3%
2 - 18.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
England Goals
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG-1 pp
74.1%
74.8%
Draw0 pp
18.4%
18.7%
COD+1 pp
7.5%
6.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
74.1%
Draw
18.4%
Congo DR
7.5%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG-1 pp
74.1%
74.8%
Draw0 pp
18.4%
18.7%
COD+1 pp
7.5%
6.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.9%
1 - 014.8%
3 - 011.3%
1 - 18.3%
2 - 18.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
England Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ENG
2.09
Total
2.61
COD
0.52
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.9%
Over 2.5 goals49.1%
Under 2.5 goals50.9%
Both teams to score36.2%
ENG clean sheet59.2%
COD clean sheet12.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
England Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.9%
1 - 014.8%
3 - 011.3%
1 - 18.3%
2 - 18.3%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
74.1%
Draw
18.4%
Congo DR
7.5%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 74%, projected to outscore Congo DR 2.1–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
England are projected to generate 2.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Congo DR are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours England.