Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Canada6–0Qatar
Our pre-kickoff call — result: CAN win
73%
CAN●
19%
Draw
9%
QAT
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
75%
Draw
17%
Qatar
8%
Key Insight
Canada are favoured at 75%, projected to outscore Qatar 2.3–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.1%
1 - 011.9%
3 - 010.9%
2 - 18.8%
1 - 18.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Qatar Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Match Confidence
94
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CAN-2 pp
75.0%
76.7%
Draw+1 pp
17.0%
15.7%
QAT0 pp
8.0%
7.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
75%
Draw
17%
Qatar
8%
Match Confidence
94
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CAN-2 pp
75.0%
76.7%
Draw+1 pp
17.0%
15.7%
QAT0 pp
8.0%
7.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.1%
1 - 011.9%
3 - 010.9%
2 - 18.8%
1 - 18.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Qatar Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CAN
2.27
Total
2.90
QAT
0.63
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals56.3%
Under 2.5 goals43.7%
Both teams to score42.3%
CAN clean sheet53.5%
QAT clean sheet9.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Qatar Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.1%
1 - 011.9%
3 - 010.9%
2 - 18.8%
1 - 18.1%
Match Confidence
94
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
75%
Draw
17%
Qatar
8%
Key Insight
Canada are favoured at 75%, projected to outscore Qatar 2.3–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Canada are projected to generate 2.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Qatar are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Canada.