Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Mexico2–0Ecuador
Our pre-kickoff call — result: MEX win
40%
MEX●
31%
Draw
29%
ECU
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
43.4%
Draw
30.1%
Ecuador
26.5%
Key Insight
Mexico are favoured at 43%, projected to outscore Ecuador 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 012%
0 - 110%
2 - 08.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX+1 pp
43.4%
42.5%
Draw-4 pp
30.1%
34.3%
ECU+3 pp
26.5%
23.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
43.4%
Draw
30.1%
Ecuador
26.5%
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX+1 pp
43.4%
42.5%
Draw-4 pp
30.1%
34.3%
ECU+3 pp
26.5%
23.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 012%
0 - 110%
2 - 08.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
MEX
1.25
Total
2.16
ECU
0.91
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.9%
Over 2.5 goals36.7%
Under 2.5 goals63.3%
Both teams to score43.3%
MEX clean sheet40.0%
ECU clean sheet28.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 013.9%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 012%
0 - 110%
2 - 08.9%
Match Confidence
73
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
43.4%
Draw
30.1%
Ecuador
26.5%
Key Insight
Mexico are favoured at 43%, projected to outscore Ecuador 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Mexico are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Ecuador are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Mexico.