Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
39.9%
Draw
30.8%
Ecuador
29.3%
Key Insight
Mexico are favoured at 40%, projected to outscore Ecuador 1.2–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
1 - 013.5%
0 - 012.6%
0 - 111%
2 - 08.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX-3 pp
39.9%
42.7%
Draw0 pp
30.8%
30.4%
ECU+2 pp
29.3%
26.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
39.9%
Draw
30.8%
Ecuador
29.3%
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
MEX-3 pp
39.9%
42.7%
Draw0 pp
30.8%
30.4%
ECU+2 pp
29.3%
26.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
1 - 013.5%
0 - 012.6%
0 - 111%
2 - 08.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
MEX
1.16
Total
2.12
ECU
0.95
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.0%
Over 2.5 goals35.5%
Under 2.5 goals64.5%
Both teams to score42.9%
MEX clean sheet38.5%
ECU clean sheet31.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Ecuador Goals
012345+
Mexico Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
1 - 013.5%
0 - 012.6%
0 - 111%
2 - 08.1%
Match Confidence
74
/100
High
Based on a 19-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Mexico
39.9%
Draw
30.8%
Ecuador
29.3%
Key Insight
Mexico are favoured at 40%, projected to outscore Ecuador 1.2–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Mexico are projected to generate 1.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Ecuador are projected for 1.0 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Mexico.