FIFA World Cup 2026Tue Jun 30 · 12:00 CDT · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Ivory Coast1–2Norway
Our pre-kickoff call — result: NOR win
22%
CIV
29%
Draw
50%
NOR●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
18.7%
Draw
26.8%
Norway
54.5%
Key Insight
Norway are favoured at 55%, projected to outscore Ivory Coast 1.6–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114.4%
1 - 112.4%
0 - 211.4%
0 - 010.1%
1 - 29.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CIV-7 pp
18.7%
26.2%
Draw-2 pp
26.8%
29.3%
NOR+10 pp
54.5%
44.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
18.7%
Draw
26.8%
Norway
54.5%
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CIV-7 pp
18.7%
26.2%
Draw-2 pp
26.8%
29.3%
NOR+10 pp
54.5%
44.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114.4%
1 - 112.4%
0 - 211.4%
0 - 010.1%
1 - 29.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CIV
0.79
Total
2.33
NOR
1.54
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.4%
Over 2.5 goals41.4%
Under 2.5 goals58.6%
Both teams to score43.7%
CIV clean sheet21.3%
NOR clean sheet45.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114.4%
1 - 112.4%
0 - 211.4%
0 - 010.1%
1 - 29.1%
Match Confidence
86
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
18.7%
Draw
26.8%
Norway
54.5%
Key Insight
Norway are favoured at 55%, projected to outscore Ivory Coast 1.6–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Ivory Coast are projected to generate 0.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Norway are projected for 1.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Ivory Coast.