FIFA World Cup 2026TBD · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
22%
Draw
28.5%
Norway
49.5%
Key Insight
Norway are favoured at 49%, projected to outscore Ivory Coast 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114.3%
1 - 113.1%
0 - 011.1%
0 - 210.3%
1 - 28.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Match Confidence
85
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CIV-5 pp
22.0%
26.6%
Draw+1 pp
28.5%
27.2%
NOR+3 pp
49.5%
46.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
22%
Draw
28.5%
Norway
49.5%
Match Confidence
85
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CIV-5 pp
22.0%
26.6%
Draw+1 pp
28.5%
27.2%
NOR+3 pp
49.5%
46.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114.3%
1 - 113.1%
0 - 011.1%
0 - 210.3%
1 - 28.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CIV
0.84
Total
2.25
NOR
1.40
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.3%
Over 2.5 goals39.0%
Under 2.5 goals61.0%
Both teams to score43.6%
CIV clean sheet24.5%
NOR clean sheet42.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Norway Goals
012345+
Ivory Coast Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 114.3%
1 - 113.1%
0 - 011.1%
0 - 210.3%
1 - 28.7%
Match Confidence
85
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ivory Coast
22%
Draw
28.5%
Norway
49.5%
Key Insight
Norway are favoured at 49%, projected to outscore Ivory Coast 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Ivory Coast are projected to generate 0.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Norway are projected for 1.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Ivory Coast.