Full time✓ Model's call was correct
France3–0Sweden
Our pre-kickoff call — result: FRA win
78%
FRA●
16%
Draw
7%
SWE
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
74.4%
Draw
17.4%
Sweden
8.2%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 74%, projected to outscore Sweden 2.3–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.2%
1 - 012.2%
3 - 010.8%
2 - 18.8%
1 - 18.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
France Goals
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-1 pp
74.4%
75.2%
Draw+1 pp
17.4%
16.3%
SWE0 pp
8.2%
8.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
74.4%
Draw
17.4%
Sweden
8.2%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA-1 pp
74.4%
75.2%
Draw+1 pp
17.4%
16.3%
SWE0 pp
8.2%
8.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.2%
1 - 012.2%
3 - 010.8%
2 - 18.8%
1 - 18.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
France Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
FRA
2.23
Total
2.86
SWE
0.62
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.2%
Over 2.5 goals55.3%
Under 2.5 goals44.7%
Both teams to score41.9%
FRA clean sheet53.6%
SWE clean sheet10.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
France Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.2%
1 - 012.2%
3 - 010.8%
2 - 18.8%
1 - 18.2%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
74.4%
Draw
17.4%
Sweden
8.2%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 74%, projected to outscore Sweden 2.3–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
France are projected to generate 2.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Sweden are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours France.