Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
77.7%
Draw
15.7%
Sweden
6.6%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 78%, projected to outscore Sweden 2.4–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.7%
1 - 012%
3 - 011.8%
2 - 18.3%
1 - 17.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
France Goals
Match Confidence
85
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA+3 pp
77.7%
74.3%
Draw-1 pp
15.7%
16.3%
SWE-3 pp
6.6%
9.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
77.7%
Draw
15.7%
Sweden
6.6%
Match Confidence
85
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
FRA+3 pp
77.7%
74.3%
Draw-1 pp
15.7%
16.3%
SWE-3 pp
6.6%
9.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.7%
1 - 012%
3 - 011.8%
2 - 18.3%
1 - 17.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
France Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
FRA
2.35
Total
2.92
SWE
0.57
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.7%
Over 2.5 goals57.1%
Under 2.5 goals42.9%
Both teams to score39.8%
FRA clean sheet56.6%
SWE clean sheet9.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Sweden Goals
012345+
France Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 014.7%
1 - 012%
3 - 011.8%
2 - 18.3%
1 - 17.4%
Match Confidence
85
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
France
77.7%
Draw
15.7%
Sweden
6.6%
Key Insight
France are favoured at 78%, projected to outscore Sweden 2.4–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
France are projected to generate 2.4 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Sweden are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours France.