Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
44.4%
Draw
30.2%
Japan
25.4%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 44%, projected to outscore Japan 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.2%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 012.3%
0 - 19.8%
2 - 09.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Japan Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-12 pp
44.4%
56.8%
Draw+5 pp
30.2%
24.9%
JPN+7 pp
25.4%
18.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
44.4%
Draw
30.2%
Japan
25.4%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-12 pp
44.4%
56.8%
Draw+5 pp
30.2%
24.9%
JPN+7 pp
25.4%
18.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.2%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 012.3%
0 - 19.8%
2 - 09.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Japan Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BRA
1.26
Total
2.14
JPN
0.88
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.2%
Over 2.5 goals36.2%
Under 2.5 goals63.8%
Both teams to score42.7%
BRA clean sheet41.3%
JPN clean sheet28.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Japan Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.2%
1 - 113.7%
0 - 012.3%
0 - 19.8%
2 - 09.2%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
44.4%
Draw
30.2%
Japan
25.4%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 44%, projected to outscore Japan 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Brazil are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Japan are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Brazil.