Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Brazil2–1Japan
Our pre-kickoff call — result: BRA win
45%
BRA●
30%
Draw
25%
JPN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
45.1%
Draw
29.9%
Japan
25.1%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 45%, projected to outscore Japan 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.1%
1 - 113.6%
0 - 011.9%
0 - 19.6%
2 - 09.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Japan Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-12 pp
45.1%
56.8%
Draw+5 pp
29.9%
24.9%
JPN+7 pp
25.1%
18.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
45.1%
Draw
29.9%
Japan
25.1%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
BRA-12 pp
45.1%
56.8%
Draw+5 pp
29.9%
24.9%
JPN+7 pp
25.1%
18.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.1%
1 - 113.6%
0 - 011.9%
0 - 19.6%
2 - 09.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Japan Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
BRA
1.29
Total
2.18
JPN
0.89
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals37.1%
Under 2.5 goals62.9%
Both teams to score43.3%
BRA clean sheet41.0%
JPN clean sheet27.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Japan Goals
012345+
Brazil Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.1%
1 - 113.6%
0 - 011.9%
0 - 19.6%
2 - 09.3%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Brazil
45.1%
Draw
29.9%
Japan
25.1%
Key Insight
Brazil are favoured at 45%, projected to outscore Japan 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Brazil are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Japan are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Brazil.