FIFA World Cup 2026Mon Jun 29 · 19:00 CST · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Decided on penalties✗ Model's call missed
Netherlands1–1Morocco
Morocco won 3–2 on penalties
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
35%
NED
31%
Draw●
34%
MAR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
34.7%
Draw
31.1%
Morocco
34.2%
Key Insight
Netherlands are favoured at 35%, projected to outscore Morocco 1.1–1.1 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 012.5%
1 - 012.2%
0 - 112.1%
2 - 17.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Match Confidence
91
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NED-11 pp
34.7%
45.4%
Draw+1 pp
31.1%
29.8%
MAR+10 pp
34.2%
24.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
34.7%
Draw
31.1%
Morocco
34.2%
Match Confidence
91
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NED-11 pp
34.7%
45.4%
Draw+1 pp
31.1%
29.8%
MAR+10 pp
34.2%
24.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 012.5%
1 - 012.2%
0 - 112.1%
2 - 17.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
NED
1.07
Total
2.13
MAR
1.06
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals35.8%
Under 2.5 goals64.2%
Both teams to score43.6%
NED clean sheet34.6%
MAR clean sheet34.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 012.5%
1 - 012.2%
0 - 112.1%
2 - 17.2%
Match Confidence
91
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
34.7%
Draw
31.1%
Morocco
34.2%
Key Insight
Netherlands are favoured at 35%, projected to outscore Morocco 1.1–1.1 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Netherlands are projected to generate 1.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Morocco are projected for 1.1 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Netherlands.