FIFA World Cup 2026TBD · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
35.2%
Draw
31.2%
Morocco
33.6%
Key Insight
Netherlands are favoured at 35%, projected to outscore Morocco 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.2%
0 - 012.7%
1 - 012.4%
0 - 112.1%
2 - 17.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NED-10 pp
35.2%
45.4%
Draw+1 pp
31.2%
29.8%
MAR+9 pp
33.6%
24.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
35.2%
Draw
31.2%
Morocco
33.6%
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
NED-10 pp
35.2%
45.4%
Draw+1 pp
31.2%
29.8%
MAR+9 pp
33.6%
24.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.2%
0 - 012.7%
1 - 012.4%
0 - 112.1%
2 - 17.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
NED
1.07
Total
2.11
MAR
1.04
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.2%
Over 2.5 goals35.3%
Under 2.5 goals64.7%
Both teams to score43.2%
NED clean sheet35.3%
MAR clean sheet34.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Morocco Goals
012345+
Netherlands Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.2%
0 - 012.7%
1 - 012.4%
0 - 112.1%
2 - 17.2%
Match Confidence
88
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Netherlands
35.2%
Draw
31.2%
Morocco
33.6%
Key Insight
Netherlands are favoured at 35%, projected to outscore Morocco 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Netherlands are projected to generate 1.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Morocco are projected for 1.0 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Netherlands.