Decided on penalties✗ Model's call missed
Germany1–1Paraguay
Paraguay won 4–3 on penalties
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
44%
GER
30%
Draw●
26%
PAR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
43.1%
Draw
30.3%
Paraguay
26.6%
Key Insight
Germany are favoured at 43%, projected to outscore Paraguay 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014%
1 - 113.8%
0 - 012.3%
0 - 110.1%
2 - 08.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Paraguay Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
GER-27 pp
43.1%
70.1%
Draw+12 pp
30.3%
18.7%
PAR+15 pp
26.6%
11.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
43.1%
Draw
30.3%
Paraguay
26.6%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
GER-27 pp
43.1%
70.1%
Draw+12 pp
30.3%
18.7%
PAR+15 pp
26.6%
11.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014%
1 - 113.8%
0 - 012.3%
0 - 110.1%
2 - 08.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Paraguay Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
GER
1.23
Total
2.14
PAR
0.91
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.0%
Over 2.5 goals36.2%
Under 2.5 goals63.8%
Both teams to score42.9%
GER clean sheet40.3%
PAR clean sheet29.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Paraguay Goals
012345+
Germany Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014%
1 - 113.8%
0 - 012.3%
0 - 110.1%
2 - 08.9%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Germany
43.1%
Draw
30.3%
Paraguay
26.6%
Key Insight
Germany are favoured at 43%, projected to outscore Paraguay 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Germany are projected to generate 1.2 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Paraguay are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Germany.