FIFA World Cup 2026Sun Jun 28 · 12:00 PDT · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
South Africa0–1Canada
Our pre-kickoff call — result: CAN win
17%
RSA
27%
Draw
56%
CAN●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Africa
19.1%
Draw
28.3%
Canada
52.6%
Key Insight
Canada are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore South Africa 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.5%
1 - 112.7%
0 - 011.7%
0 - 211.4%
1 - 28.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Canada Goals
012345+
South Africa Goals
Match Confidence
87
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
RSA+2 pp
19.1%
17.1%
Draw+2 pp
28.3%
26.2%
CAN-4 pp
52.6%
56.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Africa
19.1%
Draw
28.3%
Canada
52.6%
Match Confidence
87
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
RSA+2 pp
19.1%
17.1%
Draw+2 pp
28.3%
26.2%
CAN-4 pp
52.6%
56.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.5%
1 - 112.7%
0 - 011.7%
0 - 211.4%
1 - 28.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Canada Goals
012345+
South Africa Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
RSA
0.76
Total
2.19
CAN
1.43
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.5%
Over 2.5 goals37.4%
Under 2.5 goals62.6%
Both teams to score41.0%
RSA clean sheet23.8%
CAN clean sheet46.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Canada Goals
012345+
South Africa Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.5%
1 - 112.7%
0 - 011.7%
0 - 211.4%
1 - 28.7%
Match Confidence
87
/100
High
Based on a 15-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Africa
19.1%
Draw
28.3%
Canada
52.6%
Key Insight
Canada are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore South Africa 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
South Africa are projected to generate 0.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Canada are projected for 1.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours South Africa.