FIFA World Cup 2026TBD · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Africa
19%
Draw
28.3%
Canada
52.7%
Key Insight
Canada are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore South Africa 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.6%
1 - 112.7%
0 - 011.8%
0 - 211.5%
1 - 28.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Canada Goals
012345+
South Africa Goals
Match Confidence
84
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
RSA+2 pp
19.0%
17.1%
Draw+2 pp
28.3%
26.2%
CAN-4 pp
52.7%
56.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Africa
19%
Draw
28.3%
Canada
52.7%
Match Confidence
84
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
RSA+2 pp
19.0%
17.1%
Draw+2 pp
28.3%
26.2%
CAN-4 pp
52.7%
56.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.6%
1 - 112.7%
0 - 011.8%
0 - 211.5%
1 - 28.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Canada Goals
012345+
South Africa Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
RSA
0.75
Total
2.18
CAN
1.43
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.6%
Over 2.5 goals37.2%
Under 2.5 goals62.8%
Both teams to score40.8%
RSA clean sheet23.9%
CAN clean sheet47.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Canada Goals
012345+
South Africa Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
0 - 115.6%
1 - 112.7%
0 - 011.8%
0 - 211.5%
1 - 28.6%
Match Confidence
84
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Africa
19%
Draw
28.3%
Canada
52.7%
Key Insight
Canada are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore South Africa 1.4–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
South Africa are projected to generate 0.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Canada are projected for 1.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours South Africa.