Full time✗ Model's call missed
Ghana1–0Panama
Our pre-kickoff call — result: GHA win
18%
GHA●
27%
Draw
55%
PAN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ghana
27.1%
Draw
30.5%
Panama
42.4%
Key Insight
Panama are favoured at 42%, projected to outscore Ghana 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
0 - 113.8%
0 - 012.3%
1 - 010.3%
0 - 28.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Panama Goals
012345+
Ghana Goals
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
GHA-13 pp
27.1%
40.3%
Draw0 pp
30.5%
30.5%
PAN+13 pp
42.4%
29.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ghana
27.1%
Draw
30.5%
Panama
42.4%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
GHA-13 pp
27.1%
40.3%
Draw0 pp
30.5%
30.5%
PAN+13 pp
42.4%
29.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
0 - 113.8%
0 - 012.3%
1 - 010.3%
0 - 28.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Panama Goals
012345+
Ghana Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
GHA
0.92
Total
2.14
PAN
1.22
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.9%
Over 2.5 goals36.2%
Under 2.5 goals63.8%
Both teams to score43.1%
GHA clean sheet29.4%
PAN clean sheet39.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Panama Goals
012345+
Ghana Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
0 - 113.8%
0 - 012.3%
1 - 010.3%
0 - 28.7%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Ghana
27.1%
Draw
30.5%
Panama
42.4%
Key Insight
Panama are favoured at 42%, projected to outscore Ghana 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Ghana are projected to generate 0.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Panama are projected for 1.2 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Ghana.