Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Croatia1–0Panama
Our pre-kickoff call — result: CRO win
54%
CRO●
27%
Draw
19%
PAN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Croatia
55.6%
Draw
26.8%
Panama
17.7%
Key Insight
Croatia are favoured at 56%, projected to outscore Panama 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015%
1 - 112.3%
2 - 011.9%
0 - 010.5%
2 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
Panama Goals
012345+
Croatia Goals
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CRO-12 pp
55.6%
67.8%
Draw+6 pp
26.8%
20.5%
PAN+6 pp
17.7%
11.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Croatia
55.6%
Draw
26.8%
Panama
17.7%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CRO-12 pp
55.6%
67.8%
Draw+6 pp
26.8%
20.5%
PAN+6 pp
17.7%
11.7%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015%
1 - 112.3%
2 - 011.9%
0 - 010.5%
2 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
Panama Goals
012345+
Croatia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CRO
1.54
Total
2.29
PAN
0.75
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.0%
Over 2.5 goals40.3%
Under 2.5 goals59.7%
Both teams to score42.2%
CRO clean sheet46.9%
PAN clean sheet21.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Panama Goals
012345+
Croatia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015%
1 - 112.3%
2 - 011.9%
0 - 010.5%
2 - 19%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Croatia
55.6%
Draw
26.8%
Panama
17.7%
Key Insight
Croatia are favoured at 56%, projected to outscore Panama 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Croatia are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Panama are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Croatia.