Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Croatia2–1Ghana
Our pre-kickoff call — result: CRO win
64%
CRO●
24%
Draw
12%
GHA
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Croatia
63.6%
Draw
23.8%
Ghana
12.7%
Key Insight
Croatia are favoured at 64%, projected to outscore Ghana 1.8–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.6%
2 - 013.9%
1 - 110.8%
0 - 09.6%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
Croatia Goals
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CRO+10 pp
63.6%
53.3%
Draw-6 pp
23.8%
29.7%
GHA-4 pp
12.7%
17.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Croatia
63.6%
Draw
23.8%
Ghana
12.7%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CRO+10 pp
63.6%
53.3%
Draw-6 pp
23.8%
29.7%
GHA-4 pp
12.7%
17.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.6%
2 - 013.9%
1 - 110.8%
0 - 09.6%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
Croatia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CRO
1.74
Total
2.38
GHA
0.64
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.6%
Over 2.5 goals42.8%
Under 2.5 goals57.2%
Both teams to score39.7%
CRO clean sheet52.5%
GHA clean sheet17.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
Croatia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.6%
2 - 013.9%
1 - 110.8%
0 - 09.6%
2 - 18.9%
Match Confidence
92
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Croatia
63.6%
Draw
23.8%
Ghana
12.7%
Key Insight
Croatia are favoured at 64%, projected to outscore Ghana 1.8–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Croatia are projected to generate 1.8 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Ghana are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Croatia.