FIFA World Cup 2026Wed Jun 24 · 12:00 PDT · BC Place, Vancouver
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Canada1–2Switzerland
Our pre-kickoff call — result: SUI win
36%
CAN
29%
Draw
36%
SUI●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
27.6%
Draw
28%
Switzerland
44.5%
Key Insight
Switzerland are favoured at 44%, projected to outscore Canada 1.4–1.1 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.3%
0 - 111.6%
0 - 09.1%
1 - 28.9%
1 - 08.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Switzerland Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CAN-3 pp
27.6%
30.2%
Draw-4 pp
28.0%
32.2%
SUI+7 pp
44.5%
37.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
27.6%
Draw
28%
Switzerland
44.5%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
CAN-3 pp
27.6%
30.2%
Draw-4 pp
28.0%
32.2%
SUI+7 pp
44.5%
37.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.3%
0 - 111.6%
0 - 09.1%
1 - 28.9%
1 - 08.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Switzerland Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
CAN
1.05
Total
2.45
SUI
1.40
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.3%
Over 2.5 goals44.5%
Under 2.5 goals55.5%
Both teams to score49.7%
CAN clean sheet24.5%
SUI clean sheet34.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Switzerland Goals
012345+
Canada Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.3%
0 - 111.6%
0 - 09.1%
1 - 28.9%
1 - 08.5%
Match Confidence
79
/100
High
Based on a 17-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Canada
27.6%
Draw
28%
Switzerland
44.5%
Key Insight
Switzerland are favoured at 44%, projected to outscore Canada 1.4–1.1 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Canada are projected to generate 1.1 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Switzerland are projected for 1.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Canada.