Full time✓ Model's call was correct
England2–0Panama
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ENG win
72%
ENG●
20%
Draw
9%
PAN
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
79.1%
Draw
15.2%
Panama
5.7%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 79%, projected to outscore Panama 2.4–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.7%
1 - 012.9%
3 - 012.6%
2 - 17.9%
4 - 07.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Panama Goals
012345+
England Goals
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG-4 pp
79.1%
83.1%
Draw+4 pp
15.2%
10.8%
PAN0 pp
5.7%
6.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
79.1%
Draw
15.2%
Panama
5.7%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG-4 pp
79.1%
83.1%
Draw+4 pp
15.2%
10.8%
PAN0 pp
5.7%
6.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.7%
1 - 012.9%
3 - 012.6%
2 - 17.9%
4 - 07.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Panama Goals
012345+
England Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ENG
2.34
Total
2.84
PAN
0.50
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.7%
Over 2.5 goals55.2%
Under 2.5 goals44.8%
Both teams to score36.1%
ENG clean sheet60.5%
PAN clean sheet9.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Panama Goals
012345+
England Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.7%
1 - 012.9%
3 - 012.6%
2 - 17.9%
4 - 07.6%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
79.1%
Draw
15.2%
Panama
5.7%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 79%, projected to outscore Panama 2.4–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
England are projected to generate 2.4 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Panama are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours England.