Full time✗ Model's call missed
England0–0Ghana
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
83%
ENG
13%
Draw●
4%
GHA
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
84.8%
Draw
11.6%
Ghana
3.6%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 85%, projected to outscore Ghana 2.7–0.4 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.9%
3 - 014.4%
1 - 011.5%
4 - 09.8%
2 - 16.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
England Goals
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG+2 pp
84.8%
82.5%
Draw-1 pp
11.6%
12.3%
GHA-2 pp
3.6%
5.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
84.8%
Draw
11.6%
Ghana
3.6%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG+2 pp
84.8%
82.5%
Draw-1 pp
11.6%
12.3%
GHA-2 pp
3.6%
5.2%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.9%
3 - 014.4%
1 - 011.5%
4 - 09.8%
2 - 16.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
England Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ENG
2.62
Total
3.05
GHA
0.43
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.9%
Over 2.5 goals60.7%
Under 2.5 goals39.3%
Both teams to score32.6%
ENG clean sheet65.2%
GHA clean sheet6.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Ghana Goals
012345+
England Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.9%
3 - 014.4%
1 - 011.5%
4 - 09.8%
2 - 16.7%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
84.8%
Draw
11.6%
Ghana
3.6%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 85%, projected to outscore Ghana 2.7–0.4 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
England are projected to generate 2.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Ghana are projected for 0.4 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours England.