Full time✓ Model's call was correct
England4–2Croatia
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ENG win
49%
ENG●
30%
Draw
22%
CRO
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
59.7%
Draw
25.1%
Croatia
15.2%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 60%, projected to outscore Croatia 1.7–0.7 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.9%
2 - 012.8%
1 - 111.5%
0 - 09.7%
2 - 19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Croatia Goals
012345+
England Goals
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG+2 pp
59.7%
58.1%
Draw0 pp
25.1%
24.9%
CRO-2 pp
15.2%
17.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
59.7%
Draw
25.1%
Croatia
15.2%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ENG+2 pp
59.7%
58.1%
Draw0 pp
25.1%
24.9%
CRO-2 pp
15.2%
17.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.9%
2 - 012.8%
1 - 111.5%
0 - 09.7%
2 - 19.1%
Scoreline Distribution
Croatia Goals
012345+
England Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ENG
1.66
Total
2.38
CRO
0.72
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.9%
Over 2.5 goals42.6%
Under 2.5 goals57.4%
Both teams to score42.0%
ENG clean sheet48.8%
CRO clean sheet18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Croatia Goals
012345+
England Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.9%
2 - 012.8%
1 - 111.5%
0 - 09.7%
2 - 19.1%
Match Confidence
77
/100
High
Based on a 18-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
England
59.7%
Draw
25.1%
Croatia
15.2%
Key Insight
England are favoured at 60%, projected to outscore Croatia 1.7–0.7 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
England are projected to generate 1.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Croatia are projected for 0.7 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours England.