FIFA World Cup 2026Sat Jun 27 · 19:30 EDT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Full time✗ Model's call missed
Uzbekistan1–3Congo DR
Our pre-kickoff call — result: COD win
36%
UZB
32%
Draw
32%
COD●
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Uzbekistan
28.1%
Draw
31.3%
Congo DR
40.6%
Key Insight
Congo DR are favoured at 41%, projected to outscore Uzbekistan 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
0 - 114%
0 - 013.2%
1 - 011%
0 - 28.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
Uzbekistan Goals
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
UZB+10 pp
28.1%
18.4%
Draw+7 pp
31.3%
24.2%
COD-17 pp
40.6%
57.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Uzbekistan
28.1%
Draw
31.3%
Congo DR
40.6%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
UZB+10 pp
28.1%
18.4%
Draw+7 pp
31.3%
24.2%
COD-17 pp
40.6%
57.3%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
0 - 114%
0 - 013.2%
1 - 011%
0 - 28.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
Uzbekistan Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
UZB
0.92
Total
2.07
COD
1.16
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.0%
Over 2.5 goals34.3%
Under 2.5 goals65.7%
Both teams to score41.8%
UZB clean sheet31.4%
COD clean sheet39.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
Uzbekistan Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114%
0 - 114%
0 - 013.2%
1 - 011%
0 - 28.4%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Uzbekistan
28.1%
Draw
31.3%
Congo DR
40.6%
Key Insight
Congo DR are favoured at 41%, projected to outscore Uzbekistan 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Uzbekistan are projected to generate 0.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Congo DR are projected for 1.2 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Uzbekistan.