Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Colombia1–0Congo DR
Our pre-kickoff call — result: COL win
68%
COL●
22%
Draw
10%
COD
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
64.1%
Draw
24%
Congo DR
11.9%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 64%, projected to outscore Congo DR 1.7–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 016.6%
2 - 014.5%
1 - 110.6%
0 - 010.4%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
COL+1 pp
64.1%
63.2%
Draw0 pp
24.0%
23.8%
COD-1 pp
11.9%
13.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
64.1%
Draw
24%
Congo DR
11.9%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
COL+1 pp
64.1%
63.2%
Draw0 pp
24.0%
23.8%
COD-1 pp
11.9%
13.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 016.6%
2 - 014.5%
1 - 110.6%
0 - 010.4%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
COL
1.71
Total
2.30
COD
0.60
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.6%
Over 2.5 goals40.7%
Under 2.5 goals59.3%
Both teams to score37.3%
COL clean sheet55.1%
COD clean sheet18.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 016.6%
2 - 014.5%
1 - 110.6%
0 - 010.4%
2 - 18.7%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
64.1%
Draw
24%
Congo DR
11.9%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 64%, projected to outscore Congo DR 1.7–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Colombia are projected to generate 1.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Congo DR are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Colombia.