FIFA World Cup 2026Wed Jun 17 · 20:00 CST · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Colombia3–1Uzbekistan
Our pre-kickoff call — result: COL win
59%
COL●
26%
Draw
15%
UZB
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
71.2%
Draw
20.1%
Uzbekistan
8.7%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 71%, projected to outscore Uzbekistan 2.0–0.5 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
1 - 015.4%
3 - 010.4%
1 - 19.1%
2 - 18.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Uzbekistan Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Match Confidence
94
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
COL-1 pp
71.2%
71.9%
Draw+1 pp
20.1%
19.2%
UZB0 pp
8.7%
8.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
71.2%
Draw
20.1%
Uzbekistan
8.7%
Match Confidence
94
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
COL-1 pp
71.2%
71.9%
Draw+1 pp
20.1%
19.2%
UZB0 pp
8.7%
8.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
1 - 015.4%
3 - 010.4%
1 - 19.1%
2 - 18.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Uzbekistan Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
COL
1.97
Total
2.51
UZB
0.55
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.6%
Over 2.5 goals46.5%
Under 2.5 goals53.5%
Both teams to score36.7%
COL clean sheet57.9%
UZB clean sheet13.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Uzbekistan Goals
012345+
Colombia Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
2 - 015.6%
1 - 015.4%
3 - 010.4%
1 - 19.1%
2 - 18.5%
Match Confidence
94
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Colombia
71.2%
Draw
20.1%
Uzbekistan
8.7%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 71%, projected to outscore Uzbekistan 2.0–0.5 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Colombia are projected to generate 2.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Uzbekistan are projected for 0.5 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Colombia.