Full time✗ Model's call missed
Portugal1–1Congo DR
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
66%
POR
23%
Draw●
11%
COD
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
62.3%
Draw
24.6%
Congo DR
13.1%
Key Insight
Portugal are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Congo DR 1.7–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 016.1%
2 - 013.9%
1 - 111%
0 - 010.3%
2 - 18.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-12 pp
62.3%
74.7%
Draw+7 pp
24.6%
17.5%
COD+5 pp
13.1%
7.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
62.3%
Draw
24.6%
Congo DR
13.1%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-12 pp
62.3%
74.7%
Draw+7 pp
24.6%
17.5%
COD+5 pp
13.1%
7.8%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 016.1%
2 - 013.9%
1 - 111%
0 - 010.3%
2 - 18.8%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
POR
1.68
Total
2.31
COD
0.63
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline16.1%
Over 2.5 goals40.8%
Under 2.5 goals59.2%
Both teams to score38.7%
POR clean sheet53.1%
COD clean sheet18.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Congo DR Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 016.1%
2 - 013.9%
1 - 111%
0 - 010.3%
2 - 18.8%
Match Confidence
90
/100
High
Based on a 13-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
62.3%
Draw
24.6%
Congo DR
13.1%
Key Insight
Portugal are favoured at 62%, projected to outscore Congo DR 1.7–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Portugal are projected to generate 1.7 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Congo DR are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Portugal.