FIFA World Cup 2026Tue Jun 23 · 12:00 CDT · NRG Stadium, Houston
Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Portugal5–0Uzbekistan
Our pre-kickoff call — result: POR win
58%
POR●
26%
Draw
16%
UZB
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
69.6%
Draw
20.8%
Uzbekistan
9.6%
Key Insight
Portugal are favoured at 70%, projected to outscore Uzbekistan 2.0–0.6 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.1%
2 - 015.1%
3 - 09.8%
1 - 19.5%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Uzbekistan Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Match Confidence
97
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-15 pp
69.6%
84.3%
Draw+10 pp
20.8%
11.2%
UZB+5 pp
9.6%
4.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
69.6%
Draw
20.8%
Uzbekistan
9.6%
Match Confidence
97
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-15 pp
69.6%
84.3%
Draw+10 pp
20.8%
11.2%
UZB+5 pp
9.6%
4.5%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.1%
2 - 015.1%
3 - 09.8%
1 - 19.5%
2 - 18.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Uzbekistan Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
POR
1.93
Total
2.51
UZB
0.58
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline15.1%
Over 2.5 goals46.4%
Under 2.5 goals53.6%
Both teams to score38.2%
POR clean sheet56.0%
UZB clean sheet14.2%
Scoreline Distribution
Uzbekistan Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 015.1%
2 - 015.1%
3 - 09.8%
1 - 19.5%
2 - 18.7%
Match Confidence
97
/100
High
Based on a 11-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
69.6%
Draw
20.8%
Uzbekistan
9.6%
Key Insight
Portugal are favoured at 70%, projected to outscore Uzbekistan 2.0–0.6 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Portugal are projected to generate 2.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Uzbekistan are projected for 0.6 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Portugal.