Full time✗ Model's call missed
Portugal0–0Colombia
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
31%
POR
31%
Draw●
39%
COL
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
32.2%
Draw
31.3%
Colombia
36.4%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 36%, projected to outscore Portugal 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 013%
0 - 112.9%
1 - 011.9%
1 - 27.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Colombia Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-20 pp
32.2%
52.3%
Draw+8 pp
31.3%
23.7%
COL+12 pp
36.4%
24.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
32.2%
Draw
31.3%
Colombia
36.4%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
POR-20 pp
32.2%
52.3%
Draw+8 pp
31.3%
23.7%
COL+12 pp
36.4%
24.0%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 013%
0 - 112.9%
1 - 011.9%
1 - 27.3%
Scoreline Distribution
Colombia Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
POR
1.00
Total
2.09
COL
1.08
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals34.7%
Under 2.5 goals65.3%
Both teams to score42.6%
POR clean sheet33.8%
COL clean sheet36.6%
Scoreline Distribution
Colombia Goals
012345+
Portugal Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 013%
0 - 112.9%
1 - 011.9%
1 - 27.3%
Match Confidence
83
/100
High
Based on a 16-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Portugal
32.2%
Draw
31.3%
Colombia
36.4%
Key Insight
Colombia are favoured at 36%, projected to outscore Portugal 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Portugal are projected to generate 1.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Colombia are projected for 1.1 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Portugal.