Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Austria3–1Jordan
Our pre-kickoff call — result: AUT win
48%
AUT●
30%
Draw
23%
JOR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Austria
52.7%
Draw
27.6%
Jordan
19.6%
Key Insight
Austria are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore Jordan 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.6%
1 - 112.7%
2 - 011.2%
0 - 010.8%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Jordan Goals
012345+
Austria Goals
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
AUT-16 pp
52.7%
69.1%
Draw+7 pp
27.6%
20.2%
JOR+9 pp
19.6%
10.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Want deeper insights?
Join the waitlist for advanced simulations, full distributions, and model explanations.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Austria
52.7%
Draw
27.6%
Jordan
19.6%
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
AUT-16 pp
52.7%
69.1%
Draw+7 pp
27.6%
20.2%
JOR+9 pp
19.6%
10.6%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.6%
1 - 112.7%
2 - 011.2%
0 - 010.8%
2 - 18.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Jordan Goals
012345+
Austria Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
AUT
1.48
Total
2.27
JOR
0.80
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.6%
Over 2.5 goals39.8%
Under 2.5 goals60.2%
Both teams to score43.1%
AUT clean sheet45.0%
JOR clean sheet22.7%
Scoreline Distribution
Jordan Goals
012345+
Austria Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.6%
1 - 112.7%
2 - 011.2%
0 - 010.8%
2 - 18.9%
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Austria
52.7%
Draw
27.6%
Jordan
19.6%
Key Insight
Austria are favoured at 53%, projected to outscore Jordan 1.5–0.8 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Austria are projected to generate 1.5 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Jordan are projected for 0.8 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Austria.