FIFA World Cup 2026Thu Jun 18 · 12:00 EDT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Full time✗ Model's call missed
South Africa1–1Czech Republic
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
22%
RSA
29%
Draw●
49%
CZE
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Africa
27.7%
Draw
30.3%
Czech Republic
41.9%
Key Insight
Czech Republic are favoured at 42%, projected to outscore South Africa 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 012.1%
1 - 010.3%
0 - 28.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Czech Republic Goals
012345+
South Africa Goals
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
RSA+7 pp
27.7%
21.2%
Draw+3 pp
30.3%
27.7%
CZE-9 pp
41.9%
51.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Africa
27.7%
Draw
30.3%
Czech Republic
41.9%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
RSA+7 pp
27.7%
21.2%
Draw+3 pp
30.3%
27.7%
CZE-9 pp
41.9%
51.1%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 012.1%
1 - 010.3%
0 - 28.5%
Scoreline Distribution
Czech Republic Goals
012345+
South Africa Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
RSA
0.94
Total
2.16
CZE
1.22
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline13.9%
Over 2.5 goals36.7%
Under 2.5 goals63.3%
Both teams to score43.7%
RSA clean sheet29.4%
CZE clean sheet39.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Czech Republic Goals
012345+
South Africa Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 113.9%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 012.1%
1 - 010.3%
0 - 28.5%
Match Confidence
89
/100
High
Based on a 14-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
South Africa
27.7%
Draw
30.3%
Czech Republic
41.9%
Key Insight
Czech Republic are favoured at 42%, projected to outscore South Africa 1.2–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
South Africa are projected to generate 0.9 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Czech Republic are projected for 1.2 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours South Africa.