Full time✓ Model's call was correct
Algeria2–1Jordan
Our pre-kickoff call — result: ALG win
45%
ALG●
30%
Draw
25%
JOR
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Algeria
47.3%
Draw
29.3%
Jordan
23.4%
Key Insight
Algeria are favoured at 47%, projected to outscore Jordan 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.4%
0 - 011.6%
2 - 09.9%
0 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
Jordan Goals
012345+
Algeria Goals
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ALG-18 pp
47.3%
65.1%
Draw+8 pp
29.3%
21.0%
JOR+9 pp
23.4%
13.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Algeria
47.3%
Draw
29.3%
Jordan
23.4%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Model vs Market
Our model Market
ALG-18 pp
47.3%
65.1%
Draw+8 pp
29.3%
21.0%
JOR+9 pp
23.4%
13.9%
Market values are the sharp market (Pinnacle)’s implied probability (margin removed). We show them for comparison only — our forecast is independent and never blended with the market. A gap is where our read of the game differs from the crowd.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.4%
0 - 011.6%
2 - 09.9%
0 - 19%
Scoreline Distribution
Jordan Goals
012345+
Algeria Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ALG
1.34
Total
2.20
JOR
0.86
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.3%
Over 2.5 goals37.9%
Under 2.5 goals62.1%
Both teams to score43.4%
ALG clean sheet42.1%
JOR clean sheet26.0%
Scoreline Distribution
Jordan Goals
012345+
Algeria Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 014.3%
1 - 113.4%
0 - 011.6%
2 - 09.9%
0 - 19%
Match Confidence
100
/100
High
Based on a 10-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Algeria
47.3%
Draw
29.3%
Jordan
23.4%
Key Insight
Algeria are favoured at 47%, projected to outscore Jordan 1.3–0.9 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Algeria are projected to generate 1.3 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Jordan are projected for 0.9 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Algeria.