Full time✗ Model's call missed
Algeria3–3Austria
Our pre-kickoff call — result: Draw
30%
ALG
31%
Draw●
39%
AUT
model’s call● what happened
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Algeria
29.9%
Draw
31.2%
Austria
38.9%
Key Insight
Austria are favoured at 39%, projected to outscore Algeria 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 013%
1 - 011.3%
0 - 27.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Algeria Goals
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
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Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Algeria
29.9%
Draw
31.2%
Austria
38.9%
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 013%
1 - 011.3%
0 - 27.9%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Algeria Goals
Expected Goals
From the model’s scoreline distribution
ALG
0.96
Total
2.09
AUT
1.13
Goal expectations implied by the published 6×6 distribution (the 5+ bucket is counted as 5, a negligible truncation).
Match Markets
Derived from the scoreline distribution
Most likely scoreline14.1%
Over 2.5 goals34.7%
Under 2.5 goals65.3%
Both teams to score42.4%
ALG clean sheet32.2%
AUT clean sheet38.4%
Scoreline Distribution
Austria Goals
012345+
Algeria Goals
Most Likely Scorelines
1 - 114.1%
0 - 113.5%
0 - 013%
1 - 011.3%
0 - 27.9%
Match Confidence
93
/100
High
Based on a 12-point 90% credible interval.
Win Probability
Our model · Pre-match
Algeria
29.9%
Draw
31.2%
Austria
38.9%
Key Insight
Austria are favoured at 39%, projected to outscore Algeria 1.1–1.0 on expected goals.
Why this prediction?
Attacking edge
Algeria are projected to generate 1.0 expected goals, against a typical international output near 1.3.
Defensive matchup
Austria are projected for 1.1 expected goals; the fewer chances they create, the more the matchup favours Algeria.